By Breaking Belize News Staff (HP): Every year on June 1st Belize enters the most watchful period on its calendar. Hurricane season has arrived and with it comes the annual ritual of checking emergency kits, reviewing evacuation routes and keeping one eye permanently on the weather forecast.
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This year there is a word on every meteorologist’s lips that Belizeans should understand because it directly affects the kind of hurricane season we are likely to face.
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That word is El Nino.
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El Nino is the periodic warming of surface sea temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. It occurs every two to seven years and usually lasts nine to twelve months. During El Nino trade winds weaken or reverse allowing warm water in the Pacific to surge back east toward the Americas creating changes in atmospheric conditions that ripple across the entire globe including the Atlantic Basin where Belize’s hurricane threats originate.
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The result for our part of the world is significant.
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An average Atlantic hurricane season produces 14 named storms and seven hurricanes including three major ones. During El Nino historically there has been a 60 percent reduction in hurricane days. NOAA is forecasting a 55 percent chance of below normal activity this season with only a 10 percent chance of above normal.
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For Belize and the wider Caribbean those numbers represent genuine reason for measured relief.
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But the science of storms also demands humility.
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A Category 1 hurricane brings sustained winds of 119 to 153 kilometres per hour. A Category 5 can generate winds exceeding 252 kilometres per hour. Any category can devastate a small nation like Belize if it makes landfall in the wrong place.
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NOAA Director Ken Graham said it plainly.
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“It only takes one storm to make for a very bad season.”
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El Nino is helping us this year. The forecast is as encouraging as it realistically gets. But Belize has watched encouraging forecasts before and then watched hurricanes form anyway.
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So breathe a little easier. Follow the science. Understand why El Nino is working in our favour.
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And then prepare anyway. Because the one storm that does not care about the forecast is the one that matters most.
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Hurricane season starts today Belize. Be ready.
The post Hurricane season is here and the science says we may get a break this year but history tells a very different story for Belize appeared first on Belize News and Opinion on www.breakingbelizenews.com.
By Breaking Belize News Staff (HP): Every year on June 1st Belize enters the most watchful period on its calendar. Hurricane season has arrived and with it comes the annual ritual of checking emergency kits, reviewing evacuation routes and keeping one eye permanently on the weather forecast. ⠀ This year there is a word on
The post Hurricane season is here and the science says we may get a break this year but history tells a very different story for Belize appeared first on Belize News and Opinion on www.breakingbelizenews.com.
