By Zoila Palma: Early forecasts for the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season suggest a shift from the unusually active season of the past decade, with researchers pointing to the growing influence of El Niño.
Scientists at Colorado State University predict a slightly below-average season, estimating 13 named storms between June and November.
Of these, six are expected to become hurricanes, including two that could reach major hurricane strength of Category 3 or higher.
According to CNN, the outlook contrasts with recent years, which have largely seen above-average storm activity.
Only one season since 2016 — 2025 — recorded below-average storm numbers.
That year produced 13 named storms, including five hurricanes, among them the devastating Category 5 Hurricane Melissa that struck Jamaica. Forecasters note that previous predictions have sometimes missed the mark, highlighting the challenges of long-range forecasting.
Experts say their projections rely on refined climate models and key environmental signals, particularly the anticipated return of El Niño.
This climate pattern, expected to develop by mid-summer, is considered the dominant factor shaping this year’s forecast. El Niño typically suppresses hurricane activity in the Atlantic by increasing wind shear, which can disrupt storm formation and weaken developing systems.
However, forecasters caution that El Niño does not guarantee a quiet season. A similar pattern was present during 2023, yet exceptionally warm ocean temperatures fueled stronger storm development despite unfavorable atmospheric conditions.
The timing and strength of El Niño will ultimately determine how much it limits hurricane activity during the peak months from mid-August to mid-October.
The post International News: El Niño signals slightly below-average Atlantic Hurricane Season, but uncertainty remains appeared first on Belize News and Opinion on www.breakingbelizenews.com.
By Zoila Palma: Early forecasts for the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season suggest a shift from the unusually active season of the past decade, with researchers pointing to the growing influence of El Niño. Scientists at Colorado State University predict a slightly below-average season, estimating 13 named storms between June and November. Of these, six are
The post International News: El Niño signals slightly below-average Atlantic Hurricane Season, but uncertainty remains appeared first on Belize News and Opinion on www.breakingbelizenews.com.
