Peace talks to end the war between Russia and Ukraine may have hit a sticking point: Crimea. The future of the region is at the center of President Donald Trump’s peace plan for the two nations, but that approach may be strategically challenging.
Before the Russia-Ukraine war broke out, Russia seized the peninsula from Ukraine in 2014, and Trump says Crimea should “stay with Russia” as part of any peace settlement. But Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he has no power to give up Crimea to the Russians. “There’s nothing to talk about here,” he said.
Crimea’s location on the Black Sea “makes it a strategically important asset” that Russia has sought to control for centuries, said The Associated Press. For both sides, the peninsula allows control over a “critical corridor for the world’s grain, among other goods” through the sea. Ukraine’s constitution recognizes Crimea as an “integral part of the country,” said The Guardian. The only way Kyiv could legally cede the territory to Russia “would be to put the issue to the public in a referendum.”
What did the commentators say?
Trump’s demand that Ukraine recognize Russia’s control of Crimea “makes a mockery” of the peace process, said the Financial Times editorial board. That recognition would represent the “first forcible annexation of territory in Europe since 1945,” and “embolden tyrants elsewhere to violate borders.” Taiwan, in particular, would be vulnerable. That would be the result of the “incompetence and cynicism” of the Trump administration as it “scrambles to land a settlement at any price.”
“Ukraine and Europe can’t afford to refuse Trump’s peace plan,” said Anatol Lieven at Responsible Statecraft. The acceptance of Russia’s control of Crimea “really constitutes a major concession” by Kyiv. But there may not be much choice. “If U.S. aid is withdrawn,” Ukraine’s ability to defend itself against a Russian breakthrough “would be greatly reduced.” Trump’s plan would leave much of Ukraine independent, but rejecting it “can only promise Ukraine greater defeat.”
What next?
Trump’s proposal “would tear down a decades-old pillar of the global order,” said CNN. White House recognition of Crimea as part of Russia would be a breach of the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, in which the U.S. persuaded Ukraine to give up nuclear weapons in exchange for a “commitment to respect Ukraine’s sovereignty and borders.” It would also reverse the Trump administration’s 2018 promise to refuse to recognize Moscow’s claim on the peninsula. American recognition “creates a further rift between Europe and the U.S., and within NATO,” said Carla Ferstman, a law professor at Essex University in England.
The White House says Trump’s peace proposal is his “final offer,” said Axios. The U.S. is “ready to walk away if the parties don’t make a deal soon.” Some influential Ukrainians may be ready to give up territory to make that deal. “It’s not fair,” said Kyiv mayor Vitali Klitschko Friday, “but for the peace, temporary peace, maybe it can be a solution.”
Questions over control of the Black Sea peninsula are stymying the peace process
