Donald Trump still dominates the Republican Party, to an astonishing degree.
Is there any other lesson to take from Tuesday night’s Iowa caucuses? The former president won overwhelmingly, pulling in support from about half of caucus-goers, while Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis — once seen as Trump’s fiercest challenger — came in a very distant second. But DeSantis did slightly better than former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, who came in a disappointing third, and businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, who finished fourth. Ramaswamy suspended his campaign and promptly endorsed Trump. (No surprise there.)
This means the race for the GOP nomination might already be over, Dan Balz concluded at The Washington Post: “Does anyone really expect an upset considering Trump’s lead in the polls has been both strong and stable for many months?” It’s true that the former president’s standing among Republicans dipped after the party performed miserably during the 2022 midterm elections. But none of the rival candidates really took on Trump directly, and most even defended him against the 91 criminal charges he faces. It’s hard to see DeSantis or Haley getting traction in the remaining state primaries. “Regardless of what happens in New Hampshire, the following contests continue to favor Trump.”
You won’t find many observers in disagreement. “It’s still Trump’s race to lose after Iowa,” Roll Call announced. Trump has “the clearest path to victory” in the GOP race. The rest, it seems, is just commentary.
What the commentators said
The results from Iowa are “depressing and inevitable,” Michelle Goldberg lamented at The New York Times. “Barring some spectacular deus ex machina, the primary contest is over.” There was a moment, perhaps, when Trump’s rivals could have overtaken him among Republicans. Rather than criticize Trump directly, though, DeSantis and Haley “spent most of their energy and resources attacking each other.” But maybe there was no real way for them to catch up: The GOP’s “despairing base loves drama and yearns for a strongman.”
“The Trump train is rumbling down the tracks to its rendezvous with the Republican presidential nomination,” Scott Johnson argued at Power Line, a conservative blog. It’s true that Iowa caucuses don’t always predict the eventual GOP candidate — Ronald Reagan lost there the year he became president, as did George H.W. Bush eight years later. Trump even lost there in 2016. History probably won’t repeat itself this time. Trump “may have to campaign against Biden with an ankle monitor” while facing charges, but “this year the caucus results seem to provide a reliable reflection of the Republican electorate.”
Iowa voters have shown “that there essentially is no Republican other than a MAGA Republican,” Dana Milbank added at The Washington Post. The GOP had “real alternatives to Trump’s rage-filled nativism” among Trump’s challengers, but the party’s base has shown what it prefers. “They had a choice — and they chose Trump.”
What next?
Despite such proclamations, “Donald Trump’s win in Iowa doesn’t end the 2024 Republican presidential race,” W. James Antle III wrote at The Washington Examiner. Trump achieved the biggest margin of victory ever in a competitive Iowa caucus, but he’s polling less strongly in the next big contest in New Hampshire. The path is narrow for DeSantis and Haley. “There are now just three major candidates. One is going to have to show they can beat Trump somewhere.”
At the moment, though, that seems unlikely. Trump’s victory on Tuesday “moved him one step closer to returning to the White House,” Bloomberg observed. If he can win the other early states, Trump could “quickly wrap up the primary and turn his attention to a general-election rematch with President Joe Biden.” After that, it’s anybody’s guess what will happen in November. Voters are concerned about Biden’s age. But Trump — despite his big Iowa victory — “remains deeply unpopular with large swaths of the electorate outside his Republican base.”
Trump won big. DeSantis and Haley didn’t. Is the GOP race over?
