GDP rise suggests UK’s shallow recession at end of last year may already be over, economists say; ‘Recession rapidly receding in rear-view mirror’
The National Institute of Economic and Social Research, a thinktank, was more guarded, pointing out that UK economic growth has been near-zero since 2022 and GDP per head remains lower than pre-Covid.
Rob Wood, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said:
Last year’s minor recession is already rapidly receding in the rear-view mirror as real wage growth drives improving household spending power. January’s GDP was all about retail sales
We are optimistic about the near-term outlook for GDP, despite its reliance on retail sales in January. For a start, we think household real disposable income will post a strong 2.2% year-over-year increase in 2024, propelling real consumer spending to an average increase of 0.5% quarter-to-quarter through 2024. Business and consumer confidence surveys also point to improving growth.
Continue reading…GDP rise suggests UK’s shallow recession at end of last year may already be over, economists say; ‘Recession rapidly receding in rear-view mirror’The National Institute of Economic and Social Research, a thinktank, was more guarded, pointing out that UK economic growth has been near-zero since 2022 and GDP per head remains lower than pre-Covid.Rob Wood, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said:Last year’s minor recession is already rapidly receding in the rear-view mirror as real wage growth drives improving household spending power. January’s GDP was all about retail salesWe are optimistic about the near-term outlook for GDP, despite its reliance on retail sales in January. For a start, we think household real disposable income will post a strong 2.2% year-over-year increase in 2024, propelling real consumer spending to an average increase of 0.5% quarter-to-quarter through 2024. Business and consumer confidence surveys also point to improving growth. Continue reading…
