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UK inflation rises as lockdown eases; Apple hits $2tn value – as it happened

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Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news, as rising clothing, petrol and recreation prices push up the cost of living

And finally, European stock markets have ended the day higher.

Spirits were lifted by the latest rally on Wall Street, and hopes that the global economy is recovering. Top risers in London included airline operator IAG, which surged 7.6%, mining group Glencore (_2.3%) jet engine maker Rolls-Royce (+2.8%).

“Tech stocks continue to solidify their lead over the rest of the market, and Apple’s push to $2 trillion in market cap is yet another lesson in how investors continue to back the winners, clinging to the proven performance of the smartphone titan and other FAANG stocks even as concerns grow about the pace of the economic recovery.

The big theme driving this market is growth, and Apple, along with the other big tech stocks, has shown that it can still demonstrate this even in these rare times. Low inflation, rock-bottom bond yields and economic disruption have meant that dividend stocks and growth stocks are the biggest winners, and Apple does fall into both categories (although it has never been much of a dividend payer).

Related: Apple becomes Wall Street’s first $2tn company

Related: Britain’s rail passengers face 1.6% January fare rise despite Covid crisis

Related: Rail passengers pay price for flawed calculation of UK inflation

Related: California Uber and Lyft drivers brace for shutdown over worker classification

Related: London’s Greenwich Market stalls fear closure following huge rent increase

Related: Bookmakers ‘helped gambling addict squander injury compensation’

Randeep Somel, associate fund manager at M&G Investments, says the tech sector faces an uncertain future, but they’ll still benefit from the ‘secular trends’ which are being accelerated by the pandemic.

“Apple’s new milestone today reflects the progress of the FAANG stocks in recent years, as well as consumers’ increased focus and reliance on technology more recently since the outbreak of the pandemic. However, while this has been very positive for technology large cap technology companies, the future outlook for the sector is less clear. Most notably, the increasing size and influence of these companies has brought with it greater scrutiny from regulators. The ability of technology companies, all of whom are sitting on vast cash reserves, to buy out new/challenger technology companies going forward will not be as easy as it has been in the past.

“The large cap technology stocks are falling under greater scrutiny of regulators, as shown by the US congressional hearings on antitrust in July this year. The CEOs of Facebook, Alphabet (Google), Apple and Amazon were all remotely summoned to answer questions on the power of their companies ranging from use of data, pricing, and the treatment of smaller competitors. Technology platforms are very strong, but they have buttressed their positions by acquiring smaller competitors, such as Facebook’s acquisition of Instagram and Whatsapp. If there is greater scrutiny of large cap tech acquiring smaller companies going forward it will allow smaller companies to challenge and provide greater competition. As such, whilst the potential purchase of TikTok may also allow Microsoft to get footing in social media with an existing platform, an area that it has lacked relative to some of the other large cap tech companies, due to competition rules its main competitors would not want the public scrutiny of such an acquisition (Microsoft was not part of the congressional anti-trust hearings).

We’ve just been crunching the numbers on our Reuters terminal, and think this is the current top ten most valuable companies:

Apple has defied a lot in its march to the giddy heights of $2tn.

The pandemic has disrupted its supply chains, and also threatened consumer spending as the global economy has plunged into recession. But the tech giant has shrugged this aside, along with the US-China trade conflict, concerns about anti-competitive practices.

Despite fears about what store closures and economic pressure would mean for the company’s hardware sales, Apple demonstrated the resilience of its business last quarter with sales that exceeded estimates even from before the pandemic came into view. The company’s Mac and iPad sales have been especially strong given that more people are studying and working from home.

The company is expected to roll out its first 5G-enabled iPhone this fall, with management telling investors to expect a day of a few weeks compared with last year’s launch timing.

The tech stock rally has been quite remarkable over the last couple of years, as this tweet shows:

Tech is eating the world. #Apple becomes to first U.S. company to reach $2 trillion in market value. Shares of the iPhone maker have more than doubled since Mar. Apple and Saudi Aramco are the only stocks to ever hit $2tn. https://t.co/XeJlh2VIUT pic.twitter.com/WlAgrISFZf

Here’s a neat chart showing how Apple has doubled its value in two years.

Apple market value hits $2tn https://t.co/llQDLY5Qil Milestone for world’s largest listed company comes barely two years after it passed $1tn via @tim @PatrickMcGee_ pic.twitter.com/NYHfzfVyOC

My colleague Rob Davies writes:

The $2tn (£1.52tn) valuation means the company, co-founded to sell personal computers by the late Steve Jobs in 1976, is valued at significantly more than half of the US’s 2019 tax take.

Apple hit a $1tn market capitalisation in 2019, 42 years after it was founded and 117 years after US Steel became the first company to be valued at $1bn in 1901.

Related: Apple becomes Wall Street’s first $2tn company

Some snap reaction to Apple hitting a $2trn market cap.

Apple #AAPL just became the first company to brush a $2tn market cap (God, I wish I hadn’t sold my shares when I left!) pic.twitter.com/s8L2HE64oP

Historic moment in history.
The $2Tn company.
From an underdog who had to raise money from its fierce competitor to the top of world.
Steve Jobs your baby is deservingly here today.
Congratulations @tim_cook & team at Apple.
“You make me feel like I can fly so high.” pic.twitter.com/jqTGAl4Xyj

Ok *official* now — Apple crosses $467.77 to be the first $2tn tech giant.

*1st hit $1tn 24 months ago
* Has doubled valued from a “low” of $1tn just 21 weeks ago pic.twitter.com/8NQyIz9wIS

Newsflash: Apple has become the first US company to be worth two trillion dollars.

The tech company’s shares just rose over $467.76, the level which values the iPhone maker at $2trn.

Here’s a nice stat as the #SPX500 hits yet another record closing high. #Apple is not far off $2trn market cap. It took about 38 years from IPO to $1trn, but will probably only take 2 from $1trn to $2trn.

Is about Apple about to become a $2trn company?…. It’s getting very close

Just going to be spending the afternoon staring at this $AAPL quote. Magic $2tn number is $467.767 pic.twitter.com/twGG3nQHEW

David Miller, Investment Director at Quilter Cheviot, argues that the surge in the US stock market shows that investors are acting rationally.

He points out that they’re driving up the value of companies who have fared well during the pandemic, and who appear to have a healthy future:

“With equity markets on a roll since late March and the S&P 500 having reached an all-time high, the question asked by many is have investors taken leave of their senses? Don’t we know quite how bad things are in the real world.

“There are two ways of looking at this. Either investors are behaving rationally or this is a bubble of irrationality.

The Dow Jones industrial average is also rallying a little, up 114 points or 0.4% at 27,892.

Travel stocks are also rallying on Wall Street.

United Airlines are up 6.8%, with American Airlines gaining 5.8%. Cruise operators are also in demand, with Norwegian and Royal Caribbean both 5% higher.

Retailer Target is the top risers on the S&P 500, surging by 11% after posting really strong sales figures today (including a tripling of online sales).

Here’s CNBC’s take:

During the second quarter, Target’s shopping traffic picked up, customers filled up their baskets with more items, and even beauty and apparel sales were strong. Sales were also up across all five of Target’s merchandise categories.

The retailer reported its strongest sales in electronics, which was up by more than 70% overa year earlier as customers bought home office items and video games. Home and beauty grew respectively by more than 30% and 20%. Two categories — food and beverage and essentials — were up by about 20%

With Wall Street at record highs, some investors will be wondering if they should pile in…and others whether they should cash out.

We don’t give investment advice here, of course (for your own good!).

“The new equity market high, coming despite the historic social and economic upheaval, is a testament to proactive and aggressive policymaker action. The economy remains fragile, confidence is still shaky, and the pandemic is still going strong. Without the synchronised action from the Fed and government, markets would likely have followed the economy into a far more dismal and worrying state.

“And yet, at these lofty levels, investors are right to be cautious. As long as there is such significant dislocation between economy and markets, it will be imperative the Fed remains present and money continues to flow from the government. Additionally, until there is a broadening in the sectoral recovery, Big Tech will need to continue delivering and the tremendous equity market rally will remain vulnerable to the performance of a handful of companies.”

The S&P 500 is now 5% higher for the year, something which looked a little unlikely back in mid March:

In New York, stocks have opened a little higher – pushing the market to a new all-time high.

The S&P 500 has just risen above yesterday’s record high of 3,395.06, and the Nasdaq is over its own previous high of 11,230 points

S&P 500 back to all-time highs but % of members making a new 52w highs hovering around 6% … we’ve seen broader participation since market’s ascent from lows, but well below levels around February peak @Bloomberg pic.twitter.com/cgniDXAkLh

There is no doubt that the tech sector leads this coronavirus stock market rally. The fiscal and monetary policy aid has also played a big part in this.

Speaking of aid package, the second stimulus coronavirus package seems to be delayed due to better than expected U.S. economic numbers and the fact that the second quarter’s corporate earnings were better than expected.

My colleague Rob Davies has a desperately sad story about the UK’s gambling sector, and how one vulnerable addict was allowed to lose half a million pounds from a compensation claim, rather than being protected.

MPs say that Liam McCarron’s tragic tale shows that tougher rules are needed to protect gamblers from predatory companies.

Two leading bookmakers helped a severely disabled gambling addict fill out betting slips as he squandered his compensation from a botched operation, it has been claimed.

Lawyers for Liam McCarron say that Ladbrokes Coral and Paddy Power failed to intervene over more than three years as his losses reached at least £500,000.

Related: Bookmakers ‘helped gambling addict squander injury compensation’

I’d urge you to watch the video, even though it can make for difficult viewing at times.

Liam’s story is heartbreaking. https://t.co/JqK30c8v1W

Over in Canada, inflation has fallen unexpectedly, partly due to tumbling air fares and petrol.

CANADIAN CORE CPI MOM ACTUAL -0.1% (FORECAST N/A, PREVIOUS 0.5%) $MACRO

In July, air transportation prices (-8.6%) fell for the first time on a year-over-year basis since December 2015, when prices declined amid low prices for crude oil and airline fuel.

Although many flights remained cancelled or suspended as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, airlines were offering various incentives such as reduced fees, discounts and promotions to encourage a return to travel. Prices for traveller accommodation fell 27.0% year over year, posting record declines for the third consecutive month.

Inflation in Canada in July came in at well below expectations: actual of 0.1% in July versus prior July. Expectation was for 0.5%. pic.twitter.com/empg9UaRS2

Back in the US, the mortgage market appears to have cooled a little.

The US mortgage market index dropped by 3.3% last week, due to a sharp drop in people refinancing their loans.

US MORTGAGE MARKET INDEX FALLS 3.3 PCT TO 824.5 IN WEEK ENDED AUG 14 – MBA

PURCHASE INDEX RISES 0.8 PCT TO 308.9
REFINANCING INDEX FALLS 5.3 PCT TO 3,809.7
AVG 30-YEAR MORTGAGE RATE GAINS 7 BPS TO 3.13%

Our economics editor, Larry Elliott, also reckons inflation will fall back this summer…but that’s no relief to rail passengers facing another price hike.

He writes:

Oil prices rose sharply. The summer sales for clothing, footwear and household goods were less generous than they were a year ago. Activity across the economy has started to recover. As Britain begins to return to normal, it should come as no surprise that the annual inflation rate has ticked up to 1%.

In truth, it is a bit more complicated than that. The UK does not have an inflation problem and is unlikely to have one for some time. July’s official cost-of-living data was a one-off: the next move will be sharply down.

Related: Rail passengers pay price for flawed calculation of UK inflation

Some deal news, to brighten up a quiet day:

US conglomerate Johnson & Johnson is buy Momenta Pharmaceuticals for about $6.5bn in cash to bolster its portfolio of treatments for autoimmune diseases.

The deal gives J&J’s Janssen unit access to Momenta’s experimental therapy, nipocalimab, being tested for myasthenia gravis, a neuromuscular disease that causes weakness in muscles.

The drug is being developed to treat diseases where the body’s own antibodies attack or damage proteins and cells.

Johnson & Johnson will buy Momenta for about $6.5 billion in cash. https://t.co/d1Yk6WdLpY pic.twitter.com/uKD80Prdl3

Over in America, retail group Target has smashed forecasts for sales during the pandemic.

Online sales at Target nearly tripled in the May-July quarter, amid strong demand for videogames, kitchenware and clothes shipped to their doors quickly, thanks to its same-day delivery offer.

“The biggest change we saw from Q1 to Q2 … was the exceptional growth we saw in in-store shopping in an environment where many Americans were turning to digital to fulfill their needs.”

Target reported a blowout second quarter, surpassing Wall Street estimates across the board:
-Adjusted EPS: $3.38, vs. $1.62 expected
-Revenue: $23 billion, vs. $20.09 billion expected https://t.co/ghM7XSrpcO pic.twitter.com/7vPqAlFZZN

Janet Mui, investment director at Brewin Dolphin, reckons the UK needn’t fear a spike in inflation – even though clothing, fuel and furniture prices all picked in July:

“Unexpectedly strong, headline inflation from +0.6% YoY in June to +1.0% in July (consensus forecast +0.6%), was partly due to energy effects, as fuel price inflation rose from -16.4% to -12.0%.

But the core measure (ex. food, energy and tobacco) also picked up from +1.4% to +1.8%, as clothing inflation jumped from -2.2% to 0.0% and furniture inflation rose from +0.5% to +1.5%.

The Telegraph’s Tim Wallace has spotted that the cost of camping kit and ice creams also soared in July, as the pandemic encouraged the UK public to holiday at home.

He adds that the price of garden furniture jumped by 7.5% over the year, perhaps as families tried to make homeworking conditions nicer. More here.

The head of the World Bank has called for a more ambitious debt relief plan for poor countries after warning that the Covid-19 recession is turning into a depression in the most challenged parts of the globe.

In an interview with the Guardian, David Malpass raised the prospect of the first systematic write-off of debts since the 2005 Gleneagles agreement as he said fresh Bank figures due out next month would show an extra 100 million people had been pushed into poverty by the crisis.

Related: World Bank: Covid-19 pushes poorer nations ‘from recession to depression’

Here’s a plausible theory for the stunning recovery in the US stock market this year:

(2/2)
“enough economic recovery to support corporate earnings and prevent a substantial recession, but not so much that the Fed would have to raise interest rates and tighten monetary policy.” https://t.co/H2oW7Dk9kQ

Sam Tombs of Pantheon has spotted that dental visits became much pricier last month (hopefully not more painful too).

Ouch! Dental services CPI inflation leapt to 7.5% in July, from low levels in Q2 caused by the ONS’ imputation process. Other services firms have ↑prices too since reopening, showing Covid isn’t just deflationary. Still,↓goods & energy prices will keep the main rate <1% this yr pic.twitter.com/kTppxTXHsv

Wall Street is on track to hit fresh record highs when trading begins later today.

Having hit a record high on Tuesday, the S&P 500 is on track for further gains. All the losses suffered during the pandemic have now been recovered (unlike in the UK, where the FTSE 100 is still down 19% for the year).

STOCKS PREMARKET:
– Dow up 49.93 points
– Nasdaq up 15.50
– S&P up 5.00
Here’s what’s moving markets Wednesday: https://t.co/TaPut7ZjDC

There’s no stopping the US equity freight train. The S&P 500 erased all its losses since the pandemic rocked global markets to capture new records on Tuesday, pulling off its quickest ever return to new highs after entering a bear market. The primary driver of this rapid recovery is the avalanche of liquidity that’s been unleashed by the Fed and other central banks, which has virtually made bonds uninvestable, forcing investors looking for any returns to rotate into equities.

In the smaller picture, the steady slowdown in new US virus cases may have played a role as well, alongside encouraging housing data showing that homebuilding is roaring back and fresh signals from Congress that a stimulus compromise may be looming.

US: Cases continuing to decline, despite a high level of testing.

Deaths are flat. pic.twitter.com/rWO4Ln7ddn

In the City, a subdued’s morning session has seen the FTSE 100 rise by just 10 points, or 0.17%.

IAG, which owns British Airways, has risen by almost 3% this morning to the top of the FTSE 100 leaderboard. That may suggest that anxiety over Covid-19 quarantines are easing a little.

Here’s a reminder of how UK inflation has risen to its highest level since the pandemic lockdown:

The prospect of rail season tickets going up again next year will not cheer commuters, and may encourage some to stick with home working in 2021.

Pressure group Transport Focus points out that Covid-19 means there’s much less demand for a season ticket that gives unlimited travel.

People just aren’t travelling right now, so the notional idea that a season ticket is going to rise by 1.6% is interesting information – but people aren’t buying those kind of tickets at the moment.

People generally aren’t travelling as they did pre-Covid.

This morning passengers found out ticket prices could rise by as much as 1.6% in 2021.

️At a time when fewer and fewer people see themselves returning to 5 day a week travel, we’re calling on the government to urgently cut prices to get passengers back on track pic.twitter.com/T2suyBpgqh

Inflation is also rising across the eurozone, but not as fast as in the UK.

Euro-area consumer prices rose 0.4% year-on-year in July, up from 0.3% in June, according to new data from Eurostat (confirming an earlier ‘flash’ reading).

The lowest annual rates were registered in Greece (-2.1%), Cyprus (-2.0%) and Estonia (-1.3%). The highest annual rates were recorded in Hungary (3.9%), Poland (3.7%) and Czechia (3.6%). Compared with June, annual inflation fell in ten Member States, remained stable in three and rose in fourteen.

Euro area annual #inflation up to 0.4% in July (0.3% in June) https://t.co/vukOMCXp8I pic.twitter.com/yObUFNREVy

The cost of renting a property also kept rising in July.

New data from the ONS shows that the average private rental prices paid by tenants in the UK rose by 1.4% in the 12 months to July 2020, down from 1.5% in the 12 months to June 2020.

Private rental prices paid by tenants in the UK increased by 1.4% in the 12 months to July 2020, down from 1.5% in the 12 months to June 2020. For example, a property that was rented for £500.00 per month in July 2019 that had a rent increase of the average UK rate would be rented for £507.00 in July 2020.

Growth in private rental prices paid by tenants in the UK has generally slowed since the beginning of 2016, driven mainly by a slowdown in London over the same period. Rental growth has started to pick up since the end of 2018, driven by strengthening growth in London. Rental growth has remained broadly flat since November 2019.

Here’s a summary of the key points in today’s inflation report [based on CPIH, another inflation measure that included housing costs, which was slightly higher than CPI]

The pound has risen against the US dollar this morning to $1.3267, its highest level since 1st January.

But there’s not much reaction to today’s jump in consumer prices in the government bond market.

It is striking how index-linked Gilts are unconvinced there is a pick-up in UK inflation coming. In contrast to post-2008 where 5Y expectations moved (briefly) above 5%, currently the mkt is trading stubbornly below 2%. Reassuring for MPC members worried about expectations. pic.twitter.com/GW7qJ8hzs2

Here’s Reuters take on the jump in UK inflation:

Clothing and footwear prices were the biggest contributor to the rise in inflation, the ONS said.

In most years retailers slash clothes prices between June and July to clear out their summer ranges in preparation for autumn.

#UK consumer price #inflation 1% July vs 0.6% June

Consumer habits impact prices
☁️ No usual summer discounts
More job losses occurring
Cost of goods + TY vs LY
We are in a #recession
#Financial literacy required #business #newshttps://t.co/uzIag8rjx2

Here’s our news story on today’s inflation data, and the impact on rail fares:

Related: Britain’s rail passengers face 1.6% January fare rise despite Covid-19 crisis

Private dental treatment, physiotherapy and haircut prices also rose in July.

Health prices overall rose by 1.0% between June and July this year, compared with a rise of 0.1% a year ago.

The effect came almost entirely from private dental examinations and non-NHS physiotherapy sessions, where price collectors reported that prices had risen, in part, as companies make their workplace COVID-secure.

Prices overall rose this year by more than a year ago, with the main upward contributions coming from hairdressing for women and men.

The government’s meal discount deal are both likely to push inflation back down again in August.

The rise in clothing inflation may reflect retailers delaying summer discounting, as non-essential stores reopened in the middle of the month. Retailers may need to do more to entice people through the doors in the coming months. And food price inflation may continue to fall back as the re-opening of restaurants and cafes causes demand for supermarket food to decline.

What’s more, in August, the effects of the cut in the VAT rate for hospitality/tourism on 15th July (prices were collected on 14th July so this won’t be captured until August’s data) and August’s “Eat Out to Help Out” (EOHO) restaurant discount scheme will kick in. If 50% of eligible businesses pass on the VAT cut and 50% participate in the EOHO scheme, then inflation may fall by 0.7ppts. If the pass-through of both the VAT cut and the EOHO scheme is 75% rather than 50%, then inflation may be 1.1ppts lower than otherwise.

City economists and investors are surprised by the jump in inflation last month, and fear it will hurt consumers. Here’s some early reaction:

Jai Malhi, Global Market Strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management (JPMAM):

Investors have been questioning whether a sudden rise in inflation is on the cards given the sheer amount of money governments and central banks are showering round the economy. Today’s inflation release shows that prices in the UK are certainly bouncing again.

The upside inflation surprise highlights to us that Covid-19 was a shock to supply as well as demand. Companies having to operate at lower capacity may have to raise prices to cover sunk costs. At this stage we doubt this will prevent the Bank of England providing further support to the economy. But if these upside surprises continue it may add some hesitancy.”

“Inflation is showing signs of a v-shaped recovery – not what consumers need at all – following an increase to 1% in July compared to this time last year. The rise was underpinned by increases in clothing prices as well as furniture and transport costs with gains also seen in culture and recreation and health. Consumers evidently had a pent up demand for summer clothes, haircuts and road trips to the beach.”

“While an inflation rate of 1% is still well below the Bank of England’s targeted figure of 2%, a period of rising inflation alongside the other well-known issues that the UK economy has to navigate in the coming months – an end to the furlough scheme and a decision one way or the other on Brexit – would make things even more painful for those whose incomes have been hit by the pandemic.”

“The consensus expectation for the month on month CPI was for it to be down, but it surprised with a rise of 0.4%, which was reflected in the year on year core CPI up 1.8%. It’s a bit early to call the return of inflation, but it does show that there is activity in the economy.”

Drivers, as well as rail passengers, face higher transport costs.

Between June and July 2020, petrol prices rose by 4.9 pence per litre, to stand at 111.4 pence per litre, and diesel prices rose by 4.0 pence per litre, to stand at 116.7 pence per litre.

In comparison, between June and July 2019, petrol and diesel prices fell by 0.9 and 2.3 pence per litre, to stand at 127.3 and 132.0 pence per litre, respectively. This month’s rise in petrol prices was the largest monthly increase since between December 2010 and January 2011, when prices rose by 5.4 pence per litre (to stand at 127.4 pence per litre).

Most of the upward move in clothing prices came from women’s garments, says the ONS, because the usual summer price cuts aren’t happening.

It says:

arments prices overall fell this year by less than a year ago, with the main upward contributions coming from garments for women, in particular formal trousers, casual jackets, jumpers, nightdresses/pyjamas, cardigans and dresses; garments for infants and children, in particular jumpers/sweatshirts/cardigans, T-shirts, trousers and pyjamas; and men’s casual jackets/coats

The UK’s retail prices index, another measure of inflation, jumped by 1.6% per year in July.

Rail fares are set to rise by another 1.6% in January, adding around £100 to the cost of many annual season tickets.

The passenger watchdog, campaigners and unions have all called on the government to abolish the policy of annual fare rises at a time when passenger numbers on the railway have plummeted due to coronavirus.

This chart shows how UK inflation is now at its highest since March (just as the economy entered the Covid-19 lockdown).

Good morning,and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.

Inflation across the UK economy has risen faster than expected, in a blow to households struggling under the pandemic.

@ONS data shows #UK CPI #inflation rose to 1.0% in July 2020 (stronger than expected), highest rate since March & up from 0.6% in June.

Largest upward pressure on prices in July came from Clothing, petrol prices, and furniture and household goods pic.twitter.com/P2MYhf5q8i

European Opening Calls:#FTSE 6093 +0.28%#DAX 12902 +0.16%#CAC 4943 +0.09%#AEX 560 +0.02%#MIB 19852 +0.03%#IBEX 7055 +0.16%#OMX 1766 +0.36%#STOXX 3294 +0.14%#IGOpeningCall

I postponed talks with China. You know why? I don’t want to deal with them now. I don’t want to deal with them now.

With what they did to this country and to the world, I don’t want to talk to China right now. Okay?

Continue reading…Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news, as rising clothing, petrol and recreation prices push up the cost of livingLatest: Apple now worth $2tnS&P 500 and Nasdaq at record highsUK CPI inflation rose to 1% in JulyHairdressers and dentists got pricier after lockdownThe key charts 5.37pm BSTAnd finally, European stock markets have ended the day higher.Spirits were lifted by the latest rally on Wall Street, and hopes that the global economy is recovering. Top risers in London included airline operator IAG, which surged 7.6%, mining group Glencore (_2.3%) jet engine maker Rolls-Royce (+2.8%).“Tech stocks continue to solidify their lead over the rest of the market, and Apple’s push to $2 trillion in market cap is yet another lesson in how investors continue to back the winners, clinging to the proven performance of the smartphone titan and other FAANG stocks even as concerns grow about the pace of the economic recovery.The big theme driving this market is growth, and Apple, along with the other big tech stocks, has shown that it can still demonstrate this even in these rare times. Low inflation, rock-bottom bond yields and economic disruption have meant that dividend stocks and growth stocks are the biggest winners, and Apple does fall into both categories (although it has never been much of a dividend payer). Related: Apple becomes Wall Street’s first $2tn company Related: Britain’s rail passengers face 1.6% January fare rise despite Covid crisis Related: Rail passengers pay price for flawed calculation of UK inflation Related: California Uber and Lyft drivers brace for shutdown over worker classification Related: London’s Greenwich Market stalls fear closure following huge rent increase Related: Bookmakers ‘helped gambling addict squander injury compensation’ 5.35pm BSTRandeep Somel, associate fund manager at M&G Investments, says the tech sector faces an uncertain future, but they’ll still benefit from the ‘secular trends’ which are being accelerated by the pandemic.“Apple’s new milestone today reflects the progress of the FAANG stocks in recent years, as well as consumers’ increased focus and reliance on technology more recently since the outbreak of the pandemic. However, while this has been very positive for technology large cap technology companies, the future outlook for the sector is less clear. Most notably, the increasing size and influence of these companies has brought with it greater scrutiny from regulators. The ability of technology companies, all of whom are sitting on vast cash reserves, to buy out new/challenger technology companies going forward will not be as easy as it has been in the past.“The large cap technology stocks are falling under greater scrutiny of regulators, as shown by the US congressional hearings on antitrust in July this year. The CEOs of Facebook, Alphabet (Google), Apple and Amazon were all remotely summoned to answer questions on the power of their companies ranging from use of data, pricing, and the treatment of smaller competitors. Technology platforms are very strong, but they have buttressed their positions by acquiring smaller competitors, such as Facebook’s acquisition of Instagram and Whatsapp. If there is greater scrutiny of large cap tech acquiring smaller companies going forward it will allow smaller companies to challenge and provide greater competition. As such, whilst the potential purchase of TikTok may also allow Microsoft to get footing in social media with an existing platform, an area that it has lacked relative to some of the other large cap tech companies, due to competition rules its main competitors would not want the public scrutiny of such an acquisition (Microsoft was not part of the congressional anti-trust hearings). 5.29pm BSTWe’ve just been crunching the numbers on our Reuters terminal, and think this is the current top ten most valuable companies: 4.39pm BSTApple has defied a lot in its march to the giddy heights of $2tn.The pandemic has disrupted its supply chains, and also threatened consumer spending as the global economy has plunged into recession. But the tech giant has shrugged this aside, along with the US-China trade conflict, concerns about anti-competitive practices.Despite fears about what store closures and economic pressure would mean for the company’s hardware sales, Apple demonstrated the resilience of its business last quarter with sales that exceeded estimates even from before the pandemic came into view. The company’s Mac and iPad sales have been especially strong given that more people are studying and working from home.The company is expected to roll out its first 5G-enabled iPhone this fall, with management telling investors to expect a day of a few weeks compared with last year’s launch timing. 4.29pm BSTThe tech stock rally has been quite remarkable over the last couple of years, as this tweet shows:Tech is eating the world. #Apple becomes to first U.S. company to reach $2 trillion in market value. Shares of the iPhone maker have more than doubled since Mar. Apple and Saudi Aramco are the only stocks to ever hit $2tn. https://t.co/XeJlh2VIUT pic.twitter.com/WlAgrISFZf 4.11pm BSTHere’s a neat chart showing how Apple has doubled its value in two years.Apple market value hits $2tn https://t.co/llQDLY5Qil Milestone for world’s largest listed company comes barely two years after it passed $1tn via @tim @PatrickMcGee_ pic.twitter.com/NYHfzfVyOC 4.00pm BSTMy colleague Rob Davies writes:The $2tn (£1.52tn) valuation means the company, co-founded to sell personal computers by the late Steve Jobs in 1976, is valued at significantly more than half of the US’s 2019 tax take.Apple hit a $1tn market capitalisation in 2019, 42 years after it was founded and 117 years after US Steel became the first company to be valued at $1bn in 1901. Related: Apple becomes Wall Street’s first $2tn company 3.59pm BSTSome snap reaction to Apple hitting a $2trn market cap.Apple #AAPL just became the first company to brush a $2tn market cap (God, I wish I hadn’t sold my shares when I left!) pic.twitter.com/s8L2HE64oPHistoric moment in history. The $2Tn company. From an underdog who had to raise money from its fierce competitor to the top of world. Steve Jobs your baby is deservingly here today. Congratulations @tim_cook & team at Apple. “You make me feel like I can fly so high.” pic.twitter.com/jqTGAl4XyjOk *official* now — Apple crosses $467.77 to be the first $2tn tech giant.*1st hit $1tn 24 months ago* Has doubled valued from a “low” of $1tn just 21 weeks ago pic.twitter.com/8NQyIz9wIS 3.55pm BSTNewsflash: Apple has become the first US company to be worth two trillion dollars.The tech company’s shares just rose over $467.76, the level which values the iPhone maker at $2trn.Here’s a nice stat as the #SPX500 hits yet another record closing high. #Apple is not far off $2trn market cap. It took about 38 years from IPO to $1trn, but will probably only take 2 from $1trn to $2trn. 3.43pm BSTIs about Apple about to become a $2trn company?…. It’s getting very closeJust going to be spending the afternoon staring at this $AAPL quote. Magic $2tn number is $467.767 pic.twitter.com/twGG3nQHEW 3.39pm BSTDavid Miller, Investment Director at Quilter Cheviot, argues that the surge in the US stock market shows that investors are acting rationally.He points out that they’re driving up the value of companies who have fared well during the pandemic, and who appear to have a healthy future:“With equity markets on a roll since late March and the S&P 500 having reached an all-time high, the question asked by many is have investors taken leave of their senses? Don’t we know quite how bad things are in the real world. “There are two ways of looking at this. Either investors are behaving rationally or this is a bubble of irrationality. 3.31pm BSTThe Dow Jones industrial average is also rallying a little, up 114 points or 0.4% at 27,892. 3.18pm BSTTravel stocks are also rallying on Wall Street.United Airlines are up 6.8%, with American Airlines gaining 5.8%. Cruise operators are also in demand, with Norwegian and Royal Caribbean both 5% higher. 3.14pm BSTRetailer Target is the top risers on the S&P 500, surging by 11% after posting really strong sales figures today (including a tripling of online sales).Here’s CNBC’s take:During the second quarter, Target’s shopping traffic picked up, customers filled up their baskets with more items, and even beauty and apparel sales were strong. Sales were also up across all five of Target’s merchandise categories.The retailer reported its strongest sales in electronics, which was up by more than 70% overa year earlier as customers bought home office items and video games. Home and beauty grew respectively by more than 30% and 20%. Two categories — food and beverage and essentials — were up by about 20% 2.59pm BSTWith Wall Street at record highs, some investors will be wondering if they should pile in…and others whether they should cash out.We don’t give investment advice here, of course (for your own good!). “The new equity market high, coming despite the historic social and economic upheaval, is a testament to proactive and aggressive policymaker action. The economy remains fragile, confidence is still shaky, and the pandemic is still going strong. Without the synchronised action from the Fed and government, markets would likely have followed the economy into a far more dismal and worrying state.“And yet, at these lofty levels, investors are right to be cautious. As long as there is such significant dislocation between economy and markets, it will be imperative the Fed remains present and money continues to flow from the government. Additionally, until there is a broadening in the sectoral recovery, Big Tech will need to continue delivering and the tremendous equity market rally will remain vulnerable to the performance of a handful of companies.” 2.56pm BSTThe S&P 500 is now 5% higher for the year, something which looked a little unlikely back in mid March: 2.40pm BSTIn New York, stocks have opened a little higher – pushing the market to a new all-time high.The S&P 500 has just risen above yesterday’s record high of 3,395.06, and the Nasdaq is over its own previous high of 11,230 pointsS&P 500 back to all-time highs but % of members making a new 52w highs hovering around 6% … we’ve seen broader participation since market’s ascent from lows, but well below levels around February peak @Bloomberg pic.twitter.com/cgniDXAkLhThere is no doubt that the tech sector leads this coronavirus stock market rally. The fiscal and monetary policy aid has also played a big part in this. Speaking of aid package, the second stimulus coronavirus package seems to be delayed due to better than expected U.S. economic numbers and the fact that the second quarter’s corporate earnings were better than expected. 2.33pm BSTMy colleague Rob Davies has a desperately sad story about the UK’s gambling sector, and how one vulnerable addict was allowed to lose half a million pounds from a compensation claim, rather than being protected.MPs say that Liam McCarron’s tragic tale shows that tougher rules are needed to protect gamblers from predatory companies.Two leading bookmakers helped a severely disabled gambling addict fill out betting slips as he squandered his compensation from a botched operation, it has been claimed.Lawyers for Liam McCarron say that Ladbrokes Coral and Paddy Power failed to intervene over more than three years as his losses reached at least £500,000. Related: Bookmakers ‘helped gambling addict squander injury compensation’ I’d urge you to watch the video, even though it can make for difficult viewing at times.Liam’s story is heartbreaking. https://t.co/JqK30c8v1W 1.49pm BSTOver in Canada, inflation has fallen unexpectedly, partly due to tumbling air fares and petrol.CANADIAN CORE CPI MOM ACTUAL -0.1% (FORECAST N/A, PREVIOUS 0.5%) $MACROIn July, air transportation prices (-8.6%) fell for the first time on a year-over-year basis since December 2015, when prices declined amid low prices for crude oil and airline fuel.Although many flights remained cancelled or suspended as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, airlines were offering various incentives such as reduced fees, discounts and promotions to encourage a return to travel. Prices for traveller accommodation fell 27.0% year over year, posting record declines for the third consecutive month. Inflation in Canada in July came in at well below expectations: actual of 0.1% in July versus prior July. Expectation was for 0.5%. pic.twitter.com/empg9UaRS2 1.13pm BSTBack in the US, the mortgage market appears to have cooled a little.The US mortgage market index dropped by 3.3% last week, due to a sharp drop in people refinancing their loans. US MORTGAGE MARKET INDEX FALLS 3.3 PCT TO 824.5 IN WEEK ENDED AUG 14 – MBA PURCHASE INDEX RISES 0.8 PCT TO 308.9REFINANCING INDEX FALLS 5.3 PCT TO 3,809.7AVG 30-YEAR MORTGAGE RATE GAINS 7 BPS TO 3.13% 12.59pm BSTOur economics editor, Larry Elliott, also reckons inflation will fall back this summer…but that’s no relief to rail passengers facing another price hike.He writes:Oil prices rose sharply. The summer sales for clothing, footwear and household goods were less generous than they were a year ago. Activity across the economy has started to recover. As Britain begins to return to normal, it should come as no surprise that the annual inflation rate has ticked up to 1%.In truth, it is a bit more complicated than that. The UK does not have an inflation problem and is unlikely to have one for some time. July’s official cost-of-living data was a one-off: the next move will be sharply down. Related: Rail passengers pay price for flawed calculation of UK inflation 12.45pm BSTSome deal news, to brighten up a quiet day:US conglomerate Johnson & Johnson is buy Momenta Pharmaceuticals for about $6.5bn in cash to bolster its portfolio of treatments for autoimmune diseases.The deal gives J&J’s Janssen unit access to Momenta’s experimental therapy, nipocalimab, being tested for myasthenia gravis, a neuromuscular disease that causes weakness in muscles.The drug is being developed to treat diseases where the body’s own antibodies attack or damage proteins and cells.Johnson & Johnson will buy Momenta for about $6.5 billion in cash. https://t.co/d1Yk6WdLpY pic.twitter.com/uKD80Prdl3 12.43pm BSTOver in America, retail group Target has smashed forecasts for sales during the pandemic.Online sales at Target nearly tripled in the May-July quarter, amid strong demand for videogames, kitchenware and clothes shipped to their doors quickly, thanks to its same-day delivery offer.“The biggest change we saw from Q1 to Q2 … was the exceptional growth we saw in in-store shopping in an environment where many Americans were turning to digital to fulfill their needs.”Target reported a blowout second quarter, surpassing Wall Street estimates across the board: -Adjusted EPS: $3.38, vs. $1.62 expected-Revenue: $23 billion, vs. $20.09 billion expected https://t.co/ghM7XSrpcO pic.twitter.com/7vPqAlFZZN 12.09pm BSTJanet Mui, investment director at Brewin Dolphin, reckons the UK needn’t fear a spike in inflation – even though clothing, fuel and furniture prices all picked in July: “Unexpectedly strong, headline inflation from +0.6% YoY in June to +1.0% in July (consensus forecast +0.6%), was partly due to energy effects, as fuel price inflation rose from -16.4% to -12.0%.But the core measure (ex. food, energy and tobacco) also picked up from +1.4% to +1.8%, as clothing inflation jumped from -2.2% to 0.0% and furniture inflation rose from +0.5% to +1.5%. 12.05pm BSTThe Telegraph’s Tim Wallace has spotted that the cost of camping kit and ice creams also soared in July, as the pandemic encouraged the UK public to holiday at home.He adds that the price of garden furniture jumped by 7.5% over the year, perhaps as families tried to make homeworking conditions nicer. More here. 11.47am BSTThe head of the World Bank has called for a more ambitious debt relief plan for poor countries after warning that the Covid-19 recession is turning into a depression in the most challenged parts of the globe.In an interview with the Guardian, David Malpass raised the prospect of the first systematic write-off of debts since the 2005 Gleneagles agreement as he said fresh Bank figures due out next month would show an extra 100 million people had been pushed into poverty by the crisis. Related: World Bank: Covid-19 pushes poorer nations ‘from recession to depression’ 11.45am BSTHere’s a plausible theory for the stunning recovery in the US stock market this year:(2/2)“enough economic recovery to support corporate earnings and prevent a substantial recession, but not so much that the Fed would have to raise interest rates and tighten monetary policy.” https://t.co/H2oW7Dk9kQ 11.30am BSTSam Tombs of Pantheon has spotted that dental visits became much pricier last month (hopefully not more painful too).Ouch! Dental services CPI inflation leapt to 7.5% in July, from low levels in Q2 caused by the ONS’ imputation process. Other services firms have ↑prices too since reopening, showing Covid isn’t just deflationary. Still,↓goods & energy prices will keep the main rate <1% this yr pic.twitter.com/kTppxTXHsv 11.09am BSTWall Street is on track to hit fresh record highs when trading begins later today.Having hit a record high on Tuesday, the S&P 500 is on track for further gains. All the losses suffered during the pandemic have now been recovered (unlike in the UK, where the FTSE 100 is still down 19% for the year).STOCKS PREMARKET: – Dow up 49.93 points – Nasdaq up 15.50 – S&P up 5.00 Here’s what’s moving markets Wednesday: https://t.co/TaPut7ZjDCThere’s no stopping the US equity freight train. The S&P 500 erased all its losses since the pandemic rocked global markets to capture new records on Tuesday, pulling off its quickest ever return to new highs after entering a bear market. The primary driver of this rapid recovery is the avalanche of liquidity that’s been unleashed by the Fed and other central banks, which has virtually made bonds uninvestable, forcing investors looking for any returns to rotate into equities.In the smaller picture, the steady slowdown in new US virus cases may have played a role as well, alongside encouraging housing data showing that homebuilding is roaring back and fresh signals from Congress that a stimulus compromise may be looming.US: Cases continuing to decline, despite a high level of testing.Deaths are flat. pic.twitter.com/rWO4Ln7ddn 11.03am BSTIn the City, a subdued’s morning session has seen the FTSE 100 rise by just 10 points, or 0.17%.IAG, which owns British Airways, has risen by almost 3% this morning to the top of the FTSE 100 leaderboard. That may suggest that anxiety over Covid-19 quarantines are easing a little. 10.39am BSTHere’s a reminder of how UK inflation has risen to its highest level since the pandemic lockdown: 10.25am BSTThe prospect of rail season tickets going up again next year will not cheer commuters, and may encourage some to stick with home working in 2021.Pressure group Transport Focus points out that Covid-19 means there’s much less demand for a season ticket that gives unlimited travel. People just aren’t travelling right now, so the notional idea that a season ticket is going to rise by 1.6% is interesting information – but people aren’t buying those kind of tickets at the moment.People generally aren’t travelling as they did pre-Covid.This morning passengers found out ticket prices could rise by as much as 1.6% in 2021.️At a time when fewer and fewer people see themselves returning to 5 day a week travel, we’re calling on the government to urgently cut prices to get passengers back on track pic.twitter.com/T2suyBpgqh 10.03am BSTInflation is also rising across the eurozone, but not as fast as in the UK.Euro-area consumer prices rose 0.4% year-on-year in July, up from 0.3% in June, according to new data from Eurostat (confirming an earlier ‘flash’ reading).The lowest annual rates were registered in Greece (-2.1%), Cyprus (-2.0%) and Estonia (-1.3%). The highest annual rates were recorded in Hungary (3.9%), Poland (3.7%) and Czechia (3.6%). Compared with June, annual inflation fell in ten Member States, remained stable in three and rose in fourteen. Euro area annual #inflation up to 0.4% in July (0.3% in June) https://t.co/vukOMCXp8I pic.twitter.com/yObUFNREVy 9.52am BSTThe cost of renting a property also kept rising in July.New data from the ONS shows that the average private rental prices paid by tenants in the UK rose by 1.4% in the 12 months to July 2020, down from 1.5% in the 12 months to June 2020.Private rental prices paid by tenants in the UK increased by 1.4% in the 12 months to July 2020, down from 1.5% in the 12 months to June 2020. For example, a property that was rented for £500.00 per month in July 2019 that had a rent increase of the average UK rate would be rented for £507.00 in July 2020.Growth in private rental prices paid by tenants in the UK has generally slowed since the beginning of 2016, driven mainly by a slowdown in London over the same period. Rental growth has started to pick up since the end of 2018, driven by strengthening growth in London. Rental growth has remained broadly flat since November 2019. 9.50am BSTHere’s a summary of the key points in today’s inflation report [based on CPIH, another inflation measure that included housing costs, which was slightly higher than CPI] 9.21am BSTThe pound has risen against the US dollar this morning to $1.3267, its highest level since 1st January.But there’s not much reaction to today’s jump in consumer prices in the government bond market. It is striking how index-linked Gilts are unconvinced there is a pick-up in UK inflation coming. In contrast to post-2008 where 5Y expectations moved (briefly) above 5%, currently the mkt is trading stubbornly below 2%. Reassuring for MPC members worried about expectations. pic.twitter.com/GW7qJ8hzs2 9.04am BSTHere’s Reuters take on the jump in UK inflation:Clothing and footwear prices were the biggest contributor to the rise in inflation, the ONS said.In most years retailers slash clothes prices between June and July to clear out their summer ranges in preparation for autumn.#UK consumer price #inflation 1% July vs 0.6% June Consumer habits impact prices☁️ No usual summer discounts More job losses occurring Cost of goods + TY vs LY We are in a #recession #Financial literacy required #business #newshttps://t.co/uzIag8rjx2 8.49am BSTHere’s our news story on today’s inflation data, and the impact on rail fares: Related: Britain’s rail passengers face 1.6% January fare rise despite Covid-19 crisis 8.44am BSTPrivate dental treatment, physiotherapy and haircut prices also rose in July.Health prices overall rose by 1.0% between June and July this year, compared with a rise of 0.1% a year ago.The effect came almost entirely from private dental examinations and non-NHS physiotherapy sessions, where price collectors reported that prices had risen, in part, as companies make their workplace COVID-secure.Prices overall rose this year by more than a year ago, with the main upward contributions coming from hairdressing for women and men. 8.21am BSTThe government’s meal discount deal are both likely to push inflation back down again in August.The rise in clothing inflation may reflect retailers delaying summer discounting, as non-essential stores reopened in the middle of the month. Retailers may need to do more to entice people through the doors in the coming months. And food price inflation may continue to fall back as the re-opening of restaurants and cafes causes demand for supermarket food to decline.What’s more, in August, the effects of the cut in the VAT rate for hospitality/tourism on 15th July (prices were collected on 14th July so this won’t be captured until August’s data) and August’s “Eat Out to Help Out” (EOHO) restaurant discount scheme will kick in. If 50% of eligible businesses pass on the VAT cut and 50% participate in the EOHO scheme, then inflation may fall by 0.7ppts. If the pass-through of both the VAT cut and the EOHO scheme is 75% rather than 50%, then inflation may be 1.1ppts lower than otherwise. 8.00am BSTCity economists and investors are surprised by the jump in inflation last month, and fear it will hurt consumers. Here’s some early reaction:Jai Malhi, Global Market Strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management (JPMAM):Investors have been questioning whether a sudden rise in inflation is on the cards given the sheer amount of money governments and central banks are showering round the economy. Today’s inflation release shows that prices in the UK are certainly bouncing again. The upside inflation surprise highlights to us that Covid-19 was a shock to supply as well as demand. Companies having to operate at lower capacity may have to raise prices to cover sunk costs. At this stage we doubt this will prevent the Bank of England providing further support to the economy. But if these upside surprises continue it may add some hesitancy.” “Inflation is showing signs of a v-shaped recovery – not what consumers need at all – following an increase to 1% in July compared to this time last year. The rise was underpinned by increases in clothing prices as well as furniture and transport costs with gains also seen in culture and recreation and health. Consumers evidently had a pent up demand for summer clothes, haircuts and road trips to the beach.” “While an inflation rate of 1% is still well below the Bank of England’s targeted figure of 2%, a period of rising inflation alongside the other well-known issues that the UK economy has to navigate in the coming months – an end to the furlough scheme and a decision one way or the other on Brexit – would make things even more painful for those whose incomes have been hit by the pandemic.”“The consensus expectation for the month on month CPI was for it to be down, but it surprised with a rise of 0.4%, which was reflected in the year on year core CPI up 1.8%. It’s a bit early to call the return of inflation, but it does show that there is activity in the economy.” 7.48am BSTDrivers, as well as rail passengers, face higher transport costs.Between June and July 2020, petrol prices rose by 4.9 pence per litre, to stand at 111.4 pence per litre, and diesel prices rose by 4.0 pence per litre, to stand at 116.7 pence per litre.In comparison, between June and July 2019, petrol and diesel prices fell by 0.9 and 2.3 pence per litre, to stand at 127.3 and 132.0 pence per litre, respectively. This month’s rise in petrol prices was the largest monthly increase since between December 2010 and January 2011, when prices rose by 5.4 pence per litre (to stand at 127.4 pence per litre). 7.41am BSTMost of the upward move in clothing prices came from women’s garments, says the ONS, because the usual summer price cuts aren’t happening. It says: arments prices overall fell this year by less than a year ago, with the main upward contributions coming from garments for women, in particular formal trousers, casual jackets, jumpers, nightdresses/pyjamas, cardigans and dresses; garments for infants and children, in particular jumpers/sweatshirts/cardigans, T-shirts, trousers and pyjamas; and men’s casual jackets/coats 7.35am BSTThe UK’s retail prices index, another measure of inflation, jumped by 1.6% per year in July. Rail fares are set to rise by another 1.6% in January, adding around £100 to the cost of many annual season tickets.The passenger watchdog, campaigners and unions have all called on the government to abolish the policy of annual fare rises at a time when passenger numbers on the railway have plummeted due to coronavirus. 7.30am BSTThis chart shows how UK inflation is now at its highest since March (just as the economy entered the Covid-19 lockdown). 7.15am BSTGood morning,and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business. Inflation across the UK economy has risen faster than expected, in a blow to households struggling under the pandemic.@ONS data shows #UK CPI #inflation rose to 1.0% in July 2020 (stronger than expected), highest rate since March & up from 0.6% in June.Largest upward pressure on prices in July came from Clothing, petrol prices, and furniture and household goods pic.twitter.com/P2MYhf5q8iEuropean Opening Calls:#FTSE 6093 +0.28%#DAX 12902 +0.16%#CAC 4943 +0.09%#AEX 560 +0.02%#MIB 19852 +0.03%#IBEX 7055 +0.16%#OMX 1766 +0.36%#STOXX 3294 +0.14%#IGOpeningCall I postponed talks with China. You know why? I don’t want to deal with them now. I don’t want to deal with them now.With what they did to this country and to the world, I don’t want to talk to China right now. Okay? Continue reading…