The war against the Houthis is just getting started.
American attacks against the Yemen-based group continued this week, The New York Times reported, a sign that President Joe Biden intends to wage an “open-ended campaign against the Iran-backed group that has disrupted traffic in vital international sea lanes.” The Washington Post reported that the campaign has raised concerns that the United States is embroiling itself in yet “another unpredictable Middle Eastern conflict.”
Those concerns probably weren’t quieted by Biden’s frank admission last week that the strikes aren’t really achieving their intended goal. “When you say ‘working,’ are they stopping the Houthis? No,” he told a White House reporter. “Are they going to continue? Yes.” Indeed, CNN noted, the Houthis “have kept firing missiles and drones at ships in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden.” That means shipping through the Red Sea remains severely disrupted.
“The U.S. has no endgame in Yemen,” Gregory Brew argued at Time. It’s understandable that the U.S. responded to Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping with attacks of its own. The problem? “The group appears emboldened.” A ceasefire in Gaza — ostensibly the goal of the Houthi attacks — might help the situation. But in the meantime, America is “fighting an enemy that can’t be deterred, with capabilities that will be nearly impossible to fully degrade, on a timeline with no clear endpoint.”
‘Lack of strategic clarity’
That leads to “the obvious question: what will stop the Houthis?” Alex Ward asked at Politico. The thinking inside the White House is that military action alone won’t halt the attacks on shipping. Instead, it will require a combination of approaches “over weeks — maybe months,” and almost certainly involve a slowdown in the Israel-Hamas war. The U.S. can’t go it alone: Other countries “with an interest in open sea lanes — China, for example” will have to demand an end to the disruptions. Will that happen? Experts aren’t sure. “There’s no denying the lack of strategic clarity right now,” said one observer.
“The Houthis still have the strategic initiative,” The Washington Examiner editorialized. Perhaps the answer is actually to expand U.S. attacks. “Biden must authorize broader and more aggressive strikes against the Houthis” to include targets like the group’s command center in the Yemeni capital of Sana’a. Rather than limited airstrikes, the Houthis should be met “with sustained offensive action that will eliminate its military power.”
But a more extensive campaign against the Houthis “could trigger even larger Houthi and Iranian reprisals against commercial shipping,” Michael Dimino argued at Defense Priorities. A diplomatic approach — one that includes not just the Houthis, but real efforts to address the humanitarian crisis in Gaza — might serve U.S. interests better. Military action probably won’t do the trick. “Houthi strategic intentions are unlikely to change in the aftermath of ongoing U.S. strikes, and the group has shown no signs it’s going away.”
‘Checkmate?’
Shipping through the region has fallen off dramatically, and hasn’t picked up since the U.S. began targeting the Houthis. That’s “a fascinating indicator of how disconnected US grand strategy has become from its original rationales,” The Stimson Center’s Emma Ashford suggested on X. Murtaza Hussain was more blunt at The Intercept: “The Houthis may have checkmated Biden” in the Red Sea. Escalating the strikes could “risk a full-blown regional war.”
A contingent in Congress, meanwhile, is questioning Biden’s authority to continue the attacks without approval from the legislative branch. Defense News reported that Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) sent a letter to Biden this week warning that the president must get permission to wage war. “This has gone beyond a one-off self-defense,” he said. “As soon as it’s a prediction of a back-and-forth, it’s going to escalate more. This needs Congress now.”
For now, though, Reuters reported that Biden’s goal in Yemen is to “weaken, not destroy” the Houthis. But the voices of skepticism are growing. “I think the strategy is sustainable,” said Seth Jones at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “I just don’t think it’s going to work.”
The Yemeni group is still attacking Red Sea shipping. What will Biden do next?
