Posted: Monday, May 12, 2025. 10:03 am CST.
The views expressed in this article are those of the writer and not necessarily those of Breaking Belize News.
By Dr. Philip J.Castillo
Assistant Professor
Faculty of Management & Social Sciences
Similar to real life where the main purpose of an autopsy or post mortem is to establish the cause of death, in politics the main purpose of the autopsy or post mortem is to determine the cause or causes of defeat but more so to ascertain what can be done differently, since in democratic countries, elections are a regularly scheduled occurrence.
For General Elections 2025 in Dangriga, the main causes of the PUP victory were a general satisfaction with the candidate, an animated PUP base of voters, infighting within the main UDP opposition and candidate quality, focusing on the actual candidate whose name appeared on the ballots on March 12. Of course, money played an indeterminate role. Money always plays a role.
These factors likely reinforced each other in ways that it becomes challenging to isolate the impact of any single variable. In statistics, this is referred to as interaction effects. With a final victory percentage of 77 percent, voters were indeed satisfied with Area Representative Dr Louis Zabaneh. What can’t be easily known though, is a detailed breakdown of that level of support to find out the percentage that was due to voters being satisfied, party loyalty, infighting within the UDP, or other variables. In retrospect though, it can be definitively stated that it was infighting within the UDP that resulted in that party not fielding any candidate and due to a fortuitous set of circumstances, Mr. Cyril Garcia became the face of the Opposition.
A proper autopsy would seek to dissect these reasons because some are within the control of the local UDP in Dangriga, while others are not. I think it is Kidlin’s Law which says something to the effect that if a person clearly and specifically diagnoses a problem, he is halfway towards solving it. Indeed, the first step to achieving relevance lies in addressing factors that are within your control.
Perhaps the only variable within the control of the local UDP in Dangriga is candidate quality. Who will the UDP choose, first as its constituency caretaker and then possibly as its candidate in 2030? To separate the best from the rest, the UDP needs to have an open, free and fair convention that produces a leader around whom others can coalesce.
What is not within the control of the local UDP is the infighting at the national level. The latest news is that former leader Mr. Shyne Barrow has rescinded his resignation and assumed control of the party headquarters. The court judgement has confirmed his status as Party Leader. The same judgement noted that Mrs. Panton’s expulsion was improper. The fractured UDP, therefore, features the two leading antagonists, one as Party Leader and the other as Leader of the Opposition. Until there is a full and complete resolution of its issues, UDP disunity will continue to generate negative national headlines, most recently evidenced by the hilarious spectacle on its TV station.
More importantly, what is also outside of the Dangriga UDP control would be the satisfaction level with the incumbent Area Representative. That level is itself a function of other variables including but not necessarily limited to the overall state of the national economy, economic conditions in the town and one’s personal economic outlook. This is what the Statistical Institute of Belize measures as consumer confidence. SIB’s most recent March 2025 consumer confidence index registered its largest increase (19%) in the Stann Creek District. Consumer confidence generally correlates positively with voter behavior.
Money is obviously important in all the above, but its importance has limitations. If the local UDP chooses a weak candidate or if the candidate selection process is deemed to be flawed and produces disunity or if the national UDP continues to fight, no amount of money will save them. Neither will Jesus.
Similarly, there are other factors, such as a buoyant national economy that propelled Dr. Zabaneh and the PUP to victory. Most recent SIB national data show that the GDP, the broadest economic indicator increased by marginally over 7% for the first quarter of 2024, inflation was at 1.4% in March 2025 and unemployment at 2.1% in September 2024. When annualized, our imports are generally three to four times greater than our exports, but SIB data for February 2025, show imports for that month decreased by 4% while exports increased by 12.3%. National macroeconomic factors are outside the control of the Opposition but what is within their control will be to delve deeper into these numbers to ascertain which districts fall below the national averages. Start from there and discuss realistic solutions.
Also within the control of the UDP will be their response to the challenging economic headwinds that are facing Belize as it is being threatened by the insular trade and nativist immigration policies of the United States. These trade policies have resulted in tariffs placed on Belizean exports to our largest trading partner the United States, and increased costs of our imports from China, our second largest trading partner. Restrictive and nativist policies on immigration will likely see many Belizeans being deported. It is far too early to game out how these factors will play out. However, to be credible, the UDP will have to do more than criticize GOB’s response. At a minimum, it will have to articulate its own vision of how it will deal with these issues that in many ways pose a serious threat to our national wellbeing.
I understand that the UDP Opposition Leader Mrs. Tracy Panton and her closest advisers were in Dangriga in late April starting the revival process. Likely the local UDP bigwigs were there. But just who are these men and at least one woman I hear, hoping to lead the UDP from its wilderness in Dangriga? In the United States, what are called favorability polls, focus on new candidates. Does the Dangriga electorate have a favorable view of candidate A, B or C? If not, why not? Castillo Poll # 2 of 2025 will have some answers.
Stay tuned good folks.
Comments to pjcastillobz@gmail.com
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The post The Dangriga defeat appeared first on Belize News and Opinion on www.breakingbelizenews.com.
Posted: Monday, May 12, 2025. 10:03 am CST. The views expressed in this article are those of the writer and not necessarily those of Breaking Belize
The post The Dangriga defeat appeared first on Belize News and Opinion on www.breakingbelizenews.com.
