As multilateralism ends, the post-Cold War rules and international organisations such as the United Nations fracture, the world will increasingly see hybrid wars – such as mini regional wars, trade and resource wars.
In this new fast-changing world, where old received ideologies, past-based alliances and ways of seeing are now irrelevant, South Africa should focus on resolving domestic ‘wars’: potholes, lack of water, power outages, pit-latrines at schools, sprawling informal settlements, children going hungry, and gang, taxi and ‘zama zama’ violence and one of the world’s highest murder rates, outside a war zone.
In this new world order, where economically, technological and military powerful countries will set the rules in their local spheres, and aid-dependent countries will become poorer, and local strongman will weaponise poverty, ethnic and religious differences, there will be a resurgence of religious fundamentalist movements, authoritarianism, and a decline in democracy.
African countries, burdened by debt, facing budget shortages after the US and industrial countries cut development aid, and systemically unstable because of largely autocratic rule, systemic corruption, economy-destroying populist and outdated Cold War-era ideological policies, are especially vulnerable.
There will be rising conflicts within African and developing countries, especially those already facing deep economic crises, and structural ethnic or religious divisions, combined with poor quality, populist political leaders, who weaponise divisions.
US President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs, his US-first security, political and economic policies, and by-passing the current multilateral organisations and rules, have also broken traditional country partnerships, alliances and shared ideologies.
The Trump administration does not view traditional allies, whether Canada, the European Union or Mexico, based on the old shared ideologies and shared-past and shared democracy anymore.
Africa, developing and smaller countries needs a predictable, rule-based world, and stable multilateral organisations. The US and Israel’s war with Iran will hit the economies of most African and developing countries.
South Africa and African countries are likely to deeply feel the economic impact of the Middle East war. Rising oil prices, threats to shipping and disruption of global supply chains, mean that the continent will suffer disproportionally largely.
The war will cause rising inflation, food price increases and oil shortages. Many African economies rely on remittances from their citizens working as migrant workers in the Gulf. Such income is now at risk.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has emphasised that the global economy faces recession if the Middle East conflict rages on —with energy-importing countries like South Africa at greater risk.
South Africa, already economically brittle, will be disproportionally badly affected, if the conflict in the Middle East continues or widens. In a report published last week, the IMF warned that a broader Middle East conflict could weaken growth and destabilise financial markets.
In the worst-case scenario, in which supply disruptions persist into next year, the IMF predicts global growth to fall to around 2%. Global growth has fallen short of 2% only four times since 1980, it said.
The IMF warns South Africa—which is already battling to overcome more than a decade of stagnation—is that the impact on emerging market and developing economies would be almost twice that on advanced economies.
IMF division chief for the research department, Deniz Igan, last week said the Middle East war has unleashed strong headwinds against sub-Saharan Africa, including the expected reduced global growth, soften prices for non-oil commodities and worse in terms of trade for oil importers. “And on top of that, the region is also facing significant challenges from headwinds from declining foreign aid, which on bilateral aid cuts range from 16% to 28% in 2025,” Igan said.
“At the same time, median inflation in sub-Saharan Africa is projected to go up from 3.4% in 2025 to 5% in 2026. And that’s only reflecting the high oil and fertilizer prices, fuel shortages potentially, and rising borrowing costs. And fertilizer prices, in particular, are a concern for the region because of its dependence on agricultural products as well and existing level of food insecurity.”
Before the US-Israel-Iran war, African countries were still struggling with the negative economic consequences of the impact of Russia’s war against Ukraine, and Covid-induced economic crises. Russia’s war on Ukraine has meant that many rich European countries cut development aid, and rechanneled resources to domestic problems or to Eastern Europe, to counter Russia.
Most African countries depend heavily on development aid. The Covid-induced African economic crises, combined with the cutting of EU development aid to African countries, have already caused crises in many African countries.
This can be seen in the rise of coups, violent conflict and humanitarian crises – almost two-thirds of African countries are under pressure from one conflict or the other.
The Trump administration’s slashing of development aid, and industrial countries responding to the uncertainty caused by the US administration’s trade tariffs and America-First security policies, introducing new rounds of development aid cuts to African countries, has piled on the pressure on already brittle African governments, economies and societies.
China’s flooding of African and developing economies with state subsidised products, as it diversifies from the US market, have sustained the pressure on African economies.
Economic hardships, conflicts and autocratic governments in Africa have a direct impact on South Africa, as these crises spillover into the country, as citizens from these countries flee south, and pile on the pressure on local resources, and South African businesses invested in troubled African countries have to disinvest.
Prior to all these new terrifying global developments, Africa’s continental institutions – that are supposed to provide direction to the region, such as the African Union, had already been rendered talkshops, unable to tackle local conflicts, economic and humanitarian crises, with leaders still using the outdated post-colonial ideologies, ideas and mindsets, in a world where there are individual technology companies, that are valued higher than all African economies combined.
South Africa, with the ANC’s economically suicidal foreign policies, combined with the country’s structurally vulnerable economy – high unemployment, closures of many local companies because of US tariffs and China’s state-subsidised products, and state failure, is the most economically exposed of all emerging markets.
South Africa’s fragile economy, 60% youth unemployment, low economic growth, massive state failure, systemic corruption and mafia-like breakdown of the rule of law, means that the country is structural vulnerable, and in no position to take a loud anti-US foreign policy or a puppet-like China foreign policy.
In this new global order, responsible, tactical and big-view governments are forging foreign policies not based on ideologies, ‘solidarity’ or past affinity, but based on securing their economic and security interests.
What is a strategic and South Africa-first response to this new strength is might, no-rules global era, where old alliances are outdated, and where developing countries that are not strategic, risk being squashed in the cross-fire of the trade and security conflicts of the big economic global players, which will further damage the economy.
Both foreign and domestic and foreign policy responses must be to strengthen South Africa’s economy. If the economy declines further, it will foment huge social uprisings, instability and divisions in the country.
This means that it is absolutely critical that South Africa in this new world order, do not attach itself to any big country. South Africa must diversify its trade, based on pragmatism, South Africa’s economic and security interests, not based on past liberation alliances, ‘solidarity’ considerations or ideology.
It is critical that South Africa has competent, accountable and honest government. The ANC cannot continue to govern the country as if it is still the majority party, with only loyal cadres involved in policy-making, getting appointed to critical state entities and ANC party interest policies, rather than wider South Africa-interest policies being adopted. All the talents, ideas and colours of South Africa, that are democratic, non-racial and peaceful, has to be involved in building the country.
It is also absolute critical that South Africa at home forge a post-liberation-era, new centrist governing consensus in South Africa, that prioritises the Constitution, racial inclusion, entrepreneurship and economic growth at all costs – and that foreign align with a pro-growth agenda, and be based on outdated ideologies, Cold War alliances and misguided wishful thinking.
Such a post-liberation era, new centrist consensus should span the pro-Constitution, pro-non-racial inclusion, pro-entrepreneurship and pro-economic growth members of the Government of National Unity, and parties outside it. And such a new centrist governing consensus, must move populist, ideologically fundamentalists, corrupt leaders who weaponise past hurts, current colour and ethnic divisions, and who are violent, and who call for an imaginary ‘revolution’ and who are anti-business, anti-civil society, anti-non-racial and anti-Constitution, to the side-lines.
Prof William Gumede is Associate Professor, School of Governance, University of the Witwatersrand and author of the bestselling South Africa in BRICS (Tafelberg).
This is an edited extract of his recent talk at the discussion on “New Forms of Regional Security Amid Global Actors Competition”, organised by the Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation, Kyiv, Ukraine.
As multilateralism ends, the post-Cold War rules and international organisations such as the United Nations fracture, the world will increasingly see hybrid wars – such as mini regional wars, trade and resource wars. In this new fast-changing world, where old received ideologies, past-based alliances and ways of seeing are now irrelevant, South Africa should focus
