As the US-Israel conflict with Iran enters its second month, concerns are rising over potential trade disruptions and the impact of the oil price. Experts say South Africa’s agriculture trade with the Middle East remains significant, though diversification is essential.
Wandile Sihlobo, the chief economist at the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa, said April marked South Africa’s planting season for wheat, canola, barley and oat.
Sihlobo told the Mail & Guardian that while trade diversification remained important, the Middle East was a significant importer of South Africa’s agricultural products.
The region accounted for 8% of South Africa’s agricultural exports, valued at $15.1 billion in 2025, he said.
“From May, citrus growers will start harvesting, marking the start of the export season for this sector.”
South Africa is a leading supplier of citrus to the United Arab Emirates, with exports projected between $164m and $233m in 2025/2026, making the UAE a top Middle Eastern market.
“The impact of the war on these will be clear only in the weeks and months to come, depending on the length of the conflict and the extent of the disruption in the region,” Sihlobo said.
“South Africa’s agriculture doesn’t trade much with Iran but it does trade with various countries in the region, including the UAE, Qatar and Jordan.”
The Johannesburg Chamber of Commerce and Industry noted that South Africa remained oil secure as it received most of its crude oil from the continent. It said the risks were in agricultural exports.
In 2022, South Africa solidified its position as a major agricultural exporter, recording $23.3bn in exports and securing a 2% market share as the UAE’s 16th largest supplier.
South Africa represented 1% of Saudi Arabian imports (ranked 31st) and held a 2% share in Qatar’s $3.9bn agricultural import market, where it ranked 10th.
Duncan Bonnett, the chamber’s outgoing president, told the M&G that agricultural exports and oil prices could face significant challenges.
However, South Africa imports almost 70% of its crude oil from Angola, Côte d’Ivoire, Nigeria and Ghana, insulating the country from major supply shocks.
“We do import quite a significant amount of fertiliser from the Gulf — around 30% of imports in 2024 or $280m out of $900m — which could have a knock-on impact on farming price inputs, along with fuel prices,” said Bonnett.
Fresh fruit and meat products, as well as automotive products, which had faced uncertainty created by US import duties, could experience significant time delays.
Rising oil prices, rather than scarcity, were the main concern.
“Saudi Arabia does supply around 15% but disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz shouldn’t impact on our actual oil flows too much,” Bonnett said.
“We do import relatively large amounts of downstream petroleum products from the Gulf states, including some jet fuel, inputs in local manufacturing and the like, which could be an issue if the conflict drags on for a significant time.”
He highlighted crude oil prices and rand currency performance as deciding factors for the upcoming crop planting and fruit harvesting season.
Sultan Mohammed Al Shamsi, the UAE assistant minister of foreign affairs for development and international organisations, said its $1bn artificial intelligence (AI) partnership with Africa was expected to deliver visible, practical outcomes within five years.
The UAE is South Africa’s largest trade partner in the Gulf States though geopolitical tension has, at times, tested and even halted trade and investor momentum.
At a recent investment conference, Trade, Industry and Competition Minister Parks Tau highlighted the UAE as one of the emerging markets that South Africa’s export support desk was prioritising as part of efforts to diversify trade.
Al Shamsi said AI-enabled systems in agriculture and food security investments “aim to
strengthen supply chains while supporting local production”.
For grain farmers, AI-enabled systems could help mitigate rising fuel costs, which accounted for roughly 13% of production expenses, particularly during planting and harvest.
Sihlobo said that roughly 80% of South African grain and oilseeds was transported by road across the country, from storage to milling and to export facilities.
“With the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and disruptions to logistics, we fear that fuel prices may be elevated by the time the busy period in South Africa’s agriculture begins,” he said.
However, Bonnett noted that South Africa occupied a strategic geopolitical position compared with other markets in Europe and Asia. “Asian suppliers will have to route via the Cape at added cost and time, whereas our exporters won’t be affected by these delays.
“More broadly, there will be global impacts from additional surcharges on shipping and container costs, particularly for goods routed through the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz. These costs are likely to be felt by exporters, importers and ultimately consumers.”
He said that would put pressure on South Africa’s local logistics network and create an opportunity for exporters of fresh produce to reach the EU and Asia more competitively. AI-enabled systems, he added, would play a crucial role in helping the country seize the opportunity.
Sihlobo emphasised the country’s export-oriented agricultural sector, noting that “higher shipping costs, along with disruptions to trade routes in the Middle East, are a concern”.
He also highlighted the importance of export diversification. “The current Middle East conflict should not change the view that this region remains important for future export diversification, alongside Asia.”
Analysts say that while trade diversification remains important, the Middle East provides key corridors to agricultural exports
