Sub-Saharan Africa’s heavy reliance on imported oil leaves the region exposed to economic shocks as the escalating conflict in the Middle East drives up global energy prices, new analysis by Zero Carbon Analytics has found.
After strikes by the US and Israel killed Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, Iran responded by closing the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping route for global oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG), and launching strikes against major oil and gas infrastructure in Saudi Arabia, Qatar and elsewhere.
“Iran is effectively halting roughly 20% of global oil and LNG trade by blockading the Strait of Hormuz and has succeeded in curbing the production of liquid fuels,” the international research group, which provides analysis on climate change and the energy transition, said.
It noted that the disruption had sent oil and gas prices surging, despite efforts by the Trump administration to restart maritime traffic flows.
Sub-Saharan Africa faced multiple knock-on impacts, the analysis said. The cost of importing oil had climbed, with Brent crude rising 18% in the first four trading days of March.
“Along with a sell-off of African currencies as investors flee to the US dollar and other safe-haven assets, this will push up import bills across the region.”
That was particularly problematic for countries that were both reliant on foreign oil and had low foreign exchange reserves, the analysis said.
The crisis could also push up food prices through higher fertiliser costs.
“Synthetic nitrogen fertilisers are usually produced using fossil gas, the cost of which has jumped since Iran blocked the Strait of Hormuz and forced an LNG production halt in Qatar.”
While Africa’s fertiliser use was low compared with other regions, previous price shocks had reduced fertiliser use on the continent and worsened poor crop yields, exacerbating food insecurity.
Zero Carbon Analytics analysed import data and international reserves for 29 Sub-Saharan African countries to assess the impact of higher oil prices on import cover — an economic indicator measuring the number of months a country can pay for its imports using its international reserves.
The analysis found that Senegal, Benin, Eritrea, Burkina Faso and Zambia could experience the greatest economic shocks during the period of elevated oil prices, based on their baseline import cover ratios, projected drain on reserves and the incremental oil cost as a percentage of GDP.
Zimbabwe, for example, was a landlocked nation that imported all its oil products, it said. With prices rising from $70.69 (about R1 150) a barrel at the end of January to $85.41 a barrel by 5 March, the country’s annual import bill could increase by about $195 million, according to the modelling, assuming import volumes remained constant.
Higher oil prices meant Zimbabwe risks depleting its international reserves, “which were already low before the crisis and equate to less than one month of its total import bill”. Countries with similarly low reserves relative to imports might face continued currency depreciation pressures.
If oil prices surged further to $100 a barrel, the risk to larger economies also became significant. South Africa’s oil product import bill could rise by $6.1 billion a year, according to the modelling, assuming import volumes remained steady. That would place additional pressure on the country’s reserves, which totalled $65.4bn in 2024.
However, the analysis noted that the calculations did not account for the potential boost to reserves from higher gold prices in bullion-exporting countries, including South Africa.
Under a $100 a barrel scenario, Sudan and Uganda would see their import cover fall to risky levels — generally considered to be below three months.
The nine countries in the region in the high-risk category would see their import cover ratios decline towards zero, while others, including Tanzania and Côte d’Ivoire, would fall close to the threshold.
Rising oil import bills could also drive higher domestic inflation, as weaker currencies and increased transport costs push up the price of food and other goods.
Previous global shocks illustrated the potential impact. After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, South Africa’s annual inflation rate increased from 5.7% to 7.8% within five months, with food inflation reaching 10.1% by July 2022, driven by grains, cooking oils, fish and meat.
To contain inflation at the time, the South African Reserve Bank raised interest rates by 4.25 percentage points over 15 months, increasing borrowing costs for households and businesses.
The analysis warned that a similar scenario could play out if oil prices remained high during the Middle East conflict.
“Traders already expect that South Africa’s interest rates will be raised in the months ahead, whereas they had expected cuts before the war started. Fuel prices are also expected to rise sharply owing to the weaker South African rand and higher oil prices.”
The combination of higher inflation and borrowing costs would be a blow to households and businesses across Sub-Saharan Africa and underscored the need for governments to reduce their reliance on volatile global fossil fuel markets, the analysis said.
While the region’s exposure was dominated by oil imports, some countries were planning to purchase large volumes of LNG, which “could increase future vulnerability”.
South Africa, for example, aimed to develop an LNG import terminal and a fleet of gas-fired power plants, despite long lead times and rising costs for gas turbines globally.
“If the first phase of the country’s inaugural LNG terminal were online and operating at its 2 million-tonne capacity, the LNG import bill would have surged from $1.1bn in 2025 to $1.6bn this year, assuming current European benchmark prices hold,” the analysis said.
“This represents an unnecessary risk,” it added, citing research by Ember, which shows that solar power paired with battery storage can outcompete gas in sunny countries like South Africa, particularly when the fuel must be imported.
According to Ember’s modelling, the two technologies could cover up to 95% of the electricity demand of Johannesburg.
Other countries have similar LNG ambitions. Ghana, for example, has built its first LNG terminal near Accra. Once operational, its 1.7 million-tonne annual capacity could translate into an import bill of up to $1.3bn, based on current market conditions, further draining international reserves.
Some countries were instead pursuing electrification to reduce fuel imports. In January 2024, Ethiopia banned imports of vehicles powered by oil products to reduce its fuel import bill and promote electric mobility. The government had also introduced tax incentives for electric vehicles and encouraged local manufacturing.
Electric vehicles account for nearly 6% of vehicles on Ethiopian roads, above the global average of about 4%.
The analysis concluded that greater electrification and investment in renewable energy could help countries reduce their exposure to volatile fossil fuel markets and limit the economic impact of future geopolitical crises.
Sub-Saharan Africa’s reliance on imported oil leaves countries exposed to economic shocks amid the escalating Middle East conflict. Rising crude and LNG prices threaten import bills, inflation and currency stability, particularly in nations with low reserves
