By Breaking Belize News Staff (HP): The numbers look reassuring on the surface. NOAA is forecasting a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season for 2026, with a 55% probability that this year’s activity will fall short of historical averages. But for a country like Belize, where the western Caribbean coast has been reshaped more than once by a single catastrophic storm, the word “below-normal” offers cold comfort.
History has made that lesson painfully clear. Hurricane Iris hit Belize as a Category 4 in October 2001 during what was considered a modest season. Hurricane Richard struck the country’s coast in 2010. Both caused devastation out of proportion to how the season had been predicted. The forecast describes the Atlantic basin in aggregate. It says nothing about where a storm goes.
NOAA’s 2026 outlook predicts 1 to 3 major hurricanes, Category 3 or stronger, forming in the Atlantic. One of those needs to find a path into the western Caribbean for Belize to have a very bad year. The warm sea surface temperatures already present in the Caribbean, which NOAA flagged as slightly above normal, provide the fuel any storm needs to intensify rapidly once it enters those waters.
El Niño, the Pacific climate phenomenon that tends to suppress Atlantic storm development through increased wind shear, is expected to develop and strengthen during the season. That is the core reason for the below-normal forecast. But El Niño is not a wall. Storms still form. They still intensify. They still make landfall.
For Belize, the calculus is also complicated by geography. The country’s northern districts, Orange Walk and Corozal, are highly exposed to storms tracking across the Yucatán Channel. The southern districts and the Toledo coast face threats from systems moving up from the southern Caribbean. The offshore cayes, including Ambergris Caye and Caye Caulker, two of the country’s most economically vital tourism destinations, have minimal natural protection from storm surge.
NOAA is bringing significant new technology to bear this season, AI-driven forecast models, unmanned drone aircraft flying directly into storms to collect data, and improved storm surge mapping that will give coastal communities better information earlier. Those are genuine improvements. But technology alerts people to danger. It does not remove it.
The 2026 names begin with Arthur and run through Wilfred. Belizean officials are watching June 1 arrive the same way they always do, hoping for the best and preparing for the worst.
Hurricane preparedness information for Belize is available through the National Emergency Management Organisation (NEMO) and at hurricanes.gov.
The post One storm is all it takes: why Belize cannot sleep on a “below-normal” hurricane season appeared first on Belize News and Opinion on www.breakingbelizenews.com.
By Breaking Belize News Staff (HP): The numbers look reassuring on the surface. NOAA is forecasting a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season for 2026, with a 55% probability that this year’s activity will fall short of historical averages. But for a country like Belize, where the western Caribbean coast has been reshaped more than once by
The post One storm is all it takes: why Belize cannot sleep on a “below-normal” hurricane season appeared first on Belize News and Opinion on www.breakingbelizenews.com.