A new Social Research Foundation poll places businessperson Dr Patrice Motsepe as the most favourably viewed among leading ANC leaders, ahead of secretary-general Fikile Mbalula and deputy president Paul Mashatile.
The poll, conducted in March among a sample of 2 222 respondents, shows Motsepe has a 33.1% favourability rating, compared with 22.0% for Mbalula and 11.4% for Mashatile. His negative rating stands at 22.3%, lower than Mbalula’s 37.7% and Mashatile’s 35.0%.
Among respondents, 20.7% indicated they were unfamiliar with Motsepe, compared with 11.0% for Mbalula and 20.3% for Mashatile.
Motsepe had 47% support among ANC voters, compared with 19% for Mbalula and 16% for Mashatile. Among all voters, Motsepe has 39% support and Mbalula 14%.
The polling was conducted before the ANC’s next elective conference, where leadership positions are expected to be contested.
Commenting on the poll’s findings, Social Research Foundation analyst Frans Cronje said: “Motsepe’s favourability score is equivalent to the joint favourability scores of his rivals and his negative score is low. Should his camp put a serious campaign behind those numbers, no other ANC candidate could possibly hope to catch him.”
Motsepe has dismissed speculation about entering politics. “I am not interested in political office,” he said.
His name has, however, featured in political discussions and mobilisation efforts within ANC structures. This includes activity linked to the PM27 Savumelana campaign, which has sought to mobilise support in the party before the upcoming elections.
In response to the Mail & Guardian’s questions, campaign organiser Ishmael Mnisi said: “Dr Patrice Motsepe has no direct involvement in the PM27 campaign. “The PM27 campaign is a broad-based, grassroots initiative committed to the renewal of the ANC and the advancement of South Africa.”
Mnisi said Motsepe’s record in business, philanthropy and nation-building reflected “the credibility and visionary leadership required to guide both the ANC and the country”.
The campaign, he said, was not advancing a leadership contest. “I must emphasise that the campaign for Dr Motsepe’s candidacy will launch only once the ANC formally opens the lobbying process for the 2027 leadership contest. Until then, all PM27 campaign activities and communications are directed solely toward supporting the ANC’s local government election campaign.”
Mnisi said the campaign was solely funded by individual members “who voluntarily contribute from their own resources”.
He said structures were being developed at the provincial level.
Mnisi noted that the PM27 campaign was the only recognised structure coordinating support for Motsepe. The campaign was aware of individuals misrepresenting themselves as part of the initiative, he added. “We categorically distance ourselves from such actions and strongly advise ANC members and the public to be vigilant.”
The ANC has cautioned members against engaging in campaigning before its next elective conference. The party has also stated that leadership discussions should take
place within party processes. The warning follows political activity linked to leadership positioning across provinces, including mobilisation efforts and messaging aligned to potential candidates.
Mbalula, who serves as ANC secretary-general, has rejected claims that external actors, including Russian-linked interests, are seeking to shape internal party dynamics and influence political direction.
He has also rejected claims linking him to corruption, fraud and money laundering. Advocacy organisations have referred the allegations to law enforcement authorities.
Mbalula said he had neither been charged nor prosecuted.
Mashatile has also faced scrutiny after allegations raised in testimony before a commission of inquiry linked his name to individuals involved in disputed dealings.
Mashatile said he did not know the individuals and denied involvement. He has also denied allegations relating to contracts linked to his family.
If his camp put a serious campaign behind the numbers, no other ANC candidate would stand a chance, says the Social Research Foundation
