When Iowans shuffle to their respective caucus sites next week for the official kick-off to the 2024 presidential primary season, they will do so under decidedly strange circumstances: With polls showing former President Donald Trump with a virtually insurmountable lead over his fellow Republican candidates (in Iowa specifically, and across the GOP field at large) the question of who will “win” the state’s first in the nation caucus seems largely settled well before a single vote is cast. Less certain, however, is the surprisingly tight race for a distant second between Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis — once seen as the party’s “never Trump” silver bullet — and former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley, who is enjoying a gust of positive momentum in both the polls and among big-ticket donors.
For Haley, Iowa is a chance to build on that momentum whether or not she ultimately overtakes DeSantis next week, or at some future race — a dynamic she herself hinted at when she joked recently that New Hampshire is the state to “correct” what happens in Iowa. For DeSantis, on the other hand, Iowa is not only his first stand, but potentially his last; slippage from the second-place position he’s occupied since announcing his candidacy would be seen by many as proof positive of the DeSantis campaign’s irreversibly fatal decline.
With just days to go before the caucuses open, the next week in Iowa could very well prove to be the most consequential stretch of time in Ron DeSantis’ political life to date.
‘The true plank-walk stage’
DeSantis is scheduled today to give his annual “State of the State” address in Florida, following up on his decidedly national campaign-forecasting “Florida Blueprint” speech last year. But “whether it’s the blueprint, his difficulty connecting with voters or simply former President Donald Trump’s unshakable base,” DeSantis’ prospects in Iowa have dropped precipitously, The Associated Press reported, predicting that the governor’s remarks will be “as much a message to Iowa voters” as a vision of his home state’s future. While DeSantis will likely “check that box” when it comes to Florida-specific concerns, he will probably use the bulk of his speech as a “last-ditch effort to pitch to national donors and to voters in Iowa,” Florida House Democratic Leader Fentrice Driskell told AP.
Iowa is “make-or-break” for DeSantis, according to The New York Times’ Lisa Lerer. A weak showing against Trump and Haley would make it ” increasingly difficult for DeSantis to justify” continuing his campaign — particularly as Haley not might only “eclipse DeSantis for second place” in Iowa, but actually chip into Trump’s New Hampshire lead as well.
New Hampshire, meanwhile, seems a lost cause for the DeSantis campaign, with just two weeks to go before that state’s primaries, the governor “doesn’t have much further to fall” according to Florida Politics’ A.G. Gancarski, after a University of New Hampshire poll this week saw him slip to fifth place behind Trump and Haley, as well as former New Jersey governor Chris Christie, and political newcomer Vivek Ramaswamy.
DeSantis is in “the true plank-walk stage of his historically challenged presidential campaign,” Puck’s Tara Palmeri reported. Predicting that his campaign will “for all intents and purposes, likely be wrapped up in a week,” Palmeri also forecast a situation in which, according to Florida Politics publisher Peter Schorsch, the Trump team will campaign “aggressively for Florida, just to run up the score” against the governor.
‘He’s been to 99 counties, 200 events’
DeSantis’ team has cautioned against any premature public obituary for the candidate. Speaking with Fox News on Tuesday, campaign surrogate Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) — one of the two “idiosyncratic, ultraconservative House Republicans” who have signed on to the DeSantis campaign while “risking the ire of the former president” according to The New York Times — there has been a “massive surge going on” for DeSantis on the ground, where he has “been to 99 counties, 200 events” across Iowa. The race, Roy predicted, will be “closer than people think.”
If that’s the case, it will be thanks to the “massive dump of resources” DeSantis’ super-PAC has pushed across the state, including more than 800,000 doors his PAC “says it had knocked doors on as of late December,” according to the Des Moines Register.
A strong showing could propel the Florida governor to future primary wins — anything less could end his campaign entirely
