Posted: Wednesday, September 17, 2025. 5:56 pm CST.
By Aaron Humes: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has concluded its 2025 Article IV consultation with Belize on St George’s Caye Day. In its final statement, it highlighted the country’s remarkable post-pandemic recovery and outlined key policy priorities to sustain growth and fiscal stability.
The IMF assessment praises Belize’s positive economic trajectory, noting that after a robust expansion of 30.6 percent between 2021 and 2023 and 8.1 percent growth in 2024, driven by tourism, trade, and transport sectors, the country’s recovery remains on track. Inflation has significantly eased, dropping to 1 percent in May 2025 from 4 percent in the previous year, due to decelerations across most categories. Additionally, government revenues surged, leading to a primary surplus of 1.7 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2024 and a sharp decline in public debt to 61.1 percent of GDP from a peak of 103.3 percent in 2020, supported by debt agreements and swaps.
However, the IMF forecasts a slowdown in growth to about 1.5 percent in 2025, primarily due to a softening tourism industry and weaker agricultural output. Looking ahead, Belize is expected to gradually approach its potential growth rate of around 2 percent over the medium term. Inflation is projected to stabilize at approximately 1.3 percent, as external economic pressures ease, and the current account deficit is expected to narrow to 1.2 percent of GDP. International reserves are anticipated to increase to about four months of imports but are forecasted to remain below the regional ARA threshold by 2030.
Despite these positive trends, IMF officials caution that risks remain tilted to the downside, including higher global policy uncertainty, increased trade barriers, sustained higher interest rates, and climate-related disasters. The successful execution of large infrastructure projects could, however, provide a boost to medium-term growth.
The IMF emphasized the importance of fiscal consolidation, including reforms to improve revenue mobilization and expenditure efficiency, notably through pension reforms. Strengthening the fiscal framework with clear medium-term targets and measures aims to lower the public debt-to-GDP ratio below 50 percent and enhance resilience to external shocks.
Enhancing Belize’s financial stability remains a priority, with recommendations to expedite the operationalization of the Deposit Insurance Act and to improve access to financing for the private sector. Further structural reforms are urged to boost competitiveness, address capacity constraints in tourism, and promote female labour force participation.
IMF officials also underscored the critical need to bolster resilience against natural disasters amid climate change concerns. Continued efforts to improve the anti-money laundering and counter-terrorism financing framework are also key to maintaining financial integrity.
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Posted: Wednesday, September 17, 2025. 5:56 pm CST. By Aaron Humes: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has concluded its 2025 Article IV consultation with Belize on
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