More than two years into the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, both sides remain largely stationary with little progress to be found. Yet the human and economic impact of the war across the globe continues to be strongly felt.
These repercussions are now taking a significant toll on politics and the lives of people in Africa, a continent in which Russia has sought a “growing influence” over recent years, said Gavin Mortimer in The Spectator. In particular, President Vladimir Putin has sought to extend his reach in western and central Africa, capitalising on political instability to gain access to the region’s resources.
But Ukraine, too, has looked to “strengthen its alliances” in Africa to counter growing Russian influence, said Alexis Akwagyiram in Semafor. President Volodymr Zelenskyy will make his first state visit to the continent over the coming months, while Ukraine also plans to double the number of its embassies there.
Why is Africa so important?
The desire to gain influence in Africa shows a “growing appreciation of the role played by the continent in geopolitical affairs”, said Akwagyiram. The “value of African alliances” – and Russia’s traction on the continent – was underscored by 17 of the 54 African countries in the United Nations abstaining from a 2022 vote condemning Russia’s invasion. That “made it clear that international condemnation of Moscow was not universal”, added Akwagyiram.
For Russia, onboarding African allies creating instability can act as a way to create further “political destabilisation” for its Western and European enemies, particularly with increases in mass illegal migration from the continent, said CNBC. It also sees African nations as a gateway to accessing “strategically important natural resources” to give it an advantage.
Wavering US support and Russia’s presence in Africa has highlighted the continent’s importance to Kyiv, which aims to “broaden its alliances” and “develop a more pronounced presence on the continent”, added Akwagyiram.
What are Russia and Ukraine doing?
Russia’s modus operandi has so far been to “prop up shaky regimes with weapons and disinformation in exchange for diamonds and gold” via its Wagner Group mercenary force, said Lisa Klaassen at the New Statesman.
Countries in western and central Africa have been “neglected” by the West, added Klaassen, and Russia has ostensibly been “walking through doors left wide open by former colonial powers”, including in the Central African Republic, Niger, Mali, Burkina Faso and Sudan, where anti-European feeling is stoked by propaganda.
The influence of Russia has been felt pertinently in Sudan, where a bloody civil war continues to rage, with reports of Russian Wagner mercenaries aligned with rebel forces. Ukraine appears to have since aligned itself with government forces in Sudan to attempt to “strike at Russian interests far beyond the Ukraine war’s frontlines”, said The Guardian.
Both Russia and Ukraine have attempted to win over governments with deliveries of grain and humanitarian aid, and Ukraine is expanding its shipment program to “counter the impression that Russia is the only side in the conflict trying to address the impact on Africans”, said Akwagyiram.
Some Africans have also been directly involved in the conflict, with both countries having “sought to recruit fighters from Africa”, said Military Africa. Many young Africans “facing bleak economic prospects at home” are drawn in by the “promise of high pay and even Ukrainian citizenship after the war”, while “estimates suggest thousands” of Africans have been recruited for Russia, potentially through the Wagner Group.
What next?
Given its years of investment in currying favour in Africa, there is little chance the Kremlin will halt its advance, and there is a growing feeling that it “appears to be winning the hearts and minds of Africans”, said Mortimer.
But while Russia may be succeeding in attracting alliances with other authoritarian regimes, Ukraine can find fertile ground in appealing “directly to Africans on issues which Moscow cannot reach”, wrote Ray Hartley and Greg Mills in the Kyiv Independent. Democracy is the “strongest selling point” among young Africans, they added, but Ukraine has to “make it easier” for them to “side publicly” with it by demonstrating that losing the war would have “strategic implications for the democratic world” that would be “both profound and negative”.
Ukraine is attempting to strengthen its alliances on the continent to counter Russia’s growing presence
