By Horace Palacio: Let me give you a number that should make every Belizean stop cold.
In 2020, Belize owed more than its entire economy produced in a year. Public debt climbed above 100 percent of GDP. Think about what that means. The whole country worked for a full year, and it still was not enough to cover what we owed.
Five years later, that debt has been cut roughly in half. That is real. That is rare. And whatever color you vote, it deserves to be understood honestly, not just cheered or dismissed.
So let us walk through the real story, because the numbers tell it better than any speech.
Belize’s lowest debt on record came in 1995, around 31 percent of GDP. That was the floor. We have never touched it since.
Then came the early 2000s. Under the PUP government of that era, borrowing exploded. Debt climbed year after year, from the high thirties to over 80 percent of GDP by 2005. That reckless decade is exactly what forced Belize into its first major restructuring, the famous super bond. Let us be honest about it. That was a self inflicted wound.
The UDP took over in 2008 and inherited a heavy load. For twelve years debt stayed stubbornly high, hovering near and above 80 percent, through more restructurings in 2013 and 2017. Then the pandemic struck in 2020, the economy collapsed, emergency borrowing surged, and debt crossed 100 percent. And again, let us be fair. COVID was a global storm. Debt to GDP spiked almost everywhere on earth, because economies shrank while borrowing climbed.
Then the PUP returned in late 2020, and what happened next is the part worth studying. Debt fell faster than almost anywhere in the Caribbean.
But here is where we must be honest, because this is where politicians get slippery. That drop did not come from one heroic act. It came from three things at once.
One, the economy roared back. Tourism rebounded hard. According to the IMF, the economy grew more than 30 percent between 2021 and 2023, and another 8 percent in 2024. When the economy grows, the debt shrinks as a share of it, even if you do not pay off a single dollar.
Two, restructuring. The much praised blue bond, a debt for marine protection swap, along with a negotiated discount on the old Petrocaribe debt, erased a real chunk of what we owed.
Three, genuine discipline. Government revenues recovered and spending was controlled.
All three matter. Credit where it is due. But a citizen who understands all three is far harder to fool than one who only hears the slogan.
Now here is the part nobody running for office wants to explain to you.
You will hear that Belize’s debt is now around 45 percent of GDP, the lowest in three decades. You will also hear that it is around 66 percent. Both numbers are real. They just measure different things.
The lower number counts central government debt only. The higher number counts total public sector debt, the fuller picture. In his own 2026 budget speech, the Prime Minister put it plainly. He said the public debt stands at about 66.6 percent of GDP. The IMF, using its measure, put Belize’s debt at about 61 percent at the end of 2024.
So which number is true? They both are. But watch the game. When a government wants to look good, it quotes the smallest possible measure. When it wants to ask you for sacrifice, it quotes the largest. The honest citizen learns to ask one question every single time a politician throws a number at them. Which measure, and compared to what?
That is not cynicism. That is literacy. And Belize needs far more of it.
And here is the sobering part. The job is not finished. The IMF warns that Belize’s growth is slowing, projected at just 1.5 percent in 2025, and that debt reduction will slow with it. The official target is to push debt below 50 percent of GDP by 2030, and even reaching that will take real discipline. One bad hurricane, one global shock, one return to the careless habits of the 2000s, and the progress can unravel fast. We have watched it happen before.
So what does this whole history actually teach us? Take off the party glasses and read it straight.
The UDP built the record low in the 1990s, and also presided over a decade of high debt that ended above 100 percent.
The PUP exploded the debt in the 2000s, and also delivered one of the fastest recoveries in the region after 2020.
Neither party gets to claim a clean record. Neither gets to pretend the other is uniquely guilty. Debt did not rise or fall because one tribe is righteous and the other is evil. It rose and fell on decisions, discipline, restructuring, and luck. That is the grown up way to read these numbers.
Belize has clawed its way back from the edge. That is worth acknowledging out loud. But debt is not a trophy you win once and hang on the wall. It is a discipline you keep, or you lose.
The numbers are better than they were. The only question that matters is whether we have the discipline to keep them that way, or whether we will wait twenty years and repeat the exact same mistake.
So I will leave this one with you, Belize.
After everything you just read, the spikes, the restructurings, the recovery, and the number games, do you believe Belize is finally learning to manage its money? Or are we just enjoying a good moment before the next storm?
Tell me below. I am reading.
Reference: historical debt-to-GDP figures from Central Bank of Belize data as compiled by Trading Economics. Recent figures from the IMF 2025 Article IV review and Prime Minister John Briceño’s 2026 budget presentation.
The views expressed in this article are those of the author, Horace Palacio, and do not necessarily reflect the views or editorial stance of Breaking Belize News.
The post From over 100 percent to today, the real story of Belize’s debt appeared first on Belize News and Opinion on www.breakingbelizenews.com.
By Horace Palacio: Let me give you a number that should make every Belizean stop cold. In 2020, Belize owed more than its entire economy produced in a year. Public debt climbed above 100 percent of GDP. Think about what that means. The whole country worked for a full year, and it still was not
The post From over 100 percent to today, the real story of Belize’s debt appeared first on Belize News and Opinion on www.breakingbelizenews.com.