Election Season (2026 – 2030) – A Focus on Dangriga

The views expressed in this article are those of the writer and not necessarily those of Breaking Belize News.

By Dr. Philip Castillo: Thirteen candidates including two for Mayor have declared their interest in contesting next year’s municipal elections on behalf of the UDP in Dangriga. The UDP has been shut out of town board in Dangriga since 2021 when the PUP swept into municipal office. The sweep continued in 2024.

Evidenced by the 13 candidates vying for seven positions, it appears that the UDP civil war is over. So costly was their civil war that in the most recent General Elections, their standard bearer didn’t even show up on Nomination Day. Since then the party has had elections for constituency caretaker. A constituency caretaker is now in place and the deputy national party chair is from Dangriga. All ought to be well, though some people say otherwise.

A perusal of the past five municipal elections show a worrying trend in Dangriga. Voter turnout evidence a persistently declining trend, from a high of 63.21% in 2012 to a low of 51.48%, in 2024. Percentage turnout in Dangriga is always below national average levels and many times, Dangriga has the lowest voter turnout countrywide. The last two municipal elections (2021 and 2024) show the gap between countrywide turnout and turnout in Dangriga widening even more.

 
Grigalizeans are not voting despite incentives – legal and illegal – to do so. A main reason is voter apathy. People are discouraged with the system and ironically, some are dependent on the very system they opt not to participate in, since one metric often used to gauge politicians is the extent to which they can provide resources.

Another manifestation of voters’ level of discontent is a quixotic yearning for a third party, without the ailments that afflict the dominant duo. But the reality is that third parties do not thrive in Dangriga, though certain personalities associated with those parties often make individual progress more so than others. Witness the most recent 2024 Municipal Elections. On the losing UDP side, the highest vote getters were Mr. Dwayne Sampson and Mr. Stephen Laurie, both of whom were third party independents in the previous 2021 elections. Shifting from independent in 2021 to UDP in 2024, both increased their voter percentage by 140% for Mr. Laurie and 124% for Mr. Sampson. These percentage increases would not be remotely possible had these candidates not shifted.

From an economic perspective, Dangriga/Stann Creek District perennially ranks below average in SIB’s indictors of wellbeing for unemployment and poverty, in particular. Most recent data for unemployment, the national rate is 1.9%, but in the Stann Creek District, at 2.9%, the rate is highest among the other districts. Next issue regarding employment is that SIB data show that the jobs that are being created are mostly in the “Elementary Occupations” category. This ensures that the overall national macroeconomy will be stuck in a low growth, low technology, low skill level and low wage cycle. In the Stann Creek District, this is manifested in poverty data where two years ago (2024), the MPI was below the national average, but increased such that last year (2025) the district was unique where it was the only location where MPI increased.

The main employer in the town is likely the Government of Belize, broadly defined to include the municipal town board and quasi government bodies. However significant private sector employers are the Asian Community and the Mennonites. At this time, census data show that both are substantial minorities (note Table below) and both are not represented in local politics in the town.

Dangriga Population: Census 2022

Based on the foregoing, Dangriga is a town in desperate need of development. As is the Stann Creek District.

But focusing on the town, any economic development plan ought to embrace its comparative advantages. Dangriga is the only town on the mainland that has a contiguous beach along its entire seafront. This easily lends itself to a broad range of water sports/beach activities, possible via maritime tourism. The dominant Garifuna culture easily lends itself to a range of supplementary activities by independent artists and artisans linking culture with tourism. The multiplier effect of such vibrancy includes but certainly won’t be limited to, jobs for players and makers of all ranges of musical instruments and local crafts, modern and traditional cooking, tailors and seamstresses to sew the colourful uniforms of the dance groups, and a broad range of itinerant vendors.

I would wish that all current and aspiring politicians – and indeed the broader town – could agree on A development plan and the politicking could then focus on who best could implement that plan… most efficiently, effectively and transparently.

The town’s many non-voters ought to be reminded that they are doing themselves and their children and grandchildren a great disservice by opting not to participate in a process that will influence the Dangriga that they are currently living in and that they will leave to their next generation.

It is against that backdrop that the election season has started in Griga and this season may extend up to 2030. Here’s why. Both political parties have now closed their nominations for the municipals. The UDP will have a convention. Not certain yet if the incumbent PUP will have any. But the actual town board elections are constitutionally scheduled for March 2027. The following year 2028 will be village council elections in Sarawee and Hope Creek. For general election purposes only, these villages becomes a part of the Dangriga constituency. But they otherwise remain electorally independent and have their own village council elections. Both are dominated by the PUP. Anytime between now and 2030, the Prime Minister can call the General Elections. There is also the possibility that redistricting may occur to address the acknowledged mal-apportionment of national constituencies. Dangriga (6,264 voters) ought to be affected because Stann Creek West (10,903) should be impacted.

So the election season (2026 – 2030) will start with the UDP convention. 13 names, 7 spaces. And then the PUP convention, if there will be one. Castillo Poll will make statistically based predictions on these conventions and all the upcoming competitive elections. And between the election cycles, approval ratings polls will be done for the incumbents.

Dr. Philip Castillo is a development economist and a pollster

The post Election Season (2026 – 2030) – A Focus on Dangriga appeared first on Belize News and Opinion on www.breakingbelizenews.com.

The views expressed in this article are those of the writer and not necessarily those of Breaking Belize News. By Dr. Philip Castillo: Thirteen candidates including two for Mayor have declared their interest in contesting next year’s municipal elections on behalf of the UDP in Dangriga. The UDP has been shut out of town board
The post Election Season (2026 – 2030) – A Focus on Dangriga appeared first on Belize News and Opinion on www.breakingbelizenews.com.