Could Trump cause a Catholic schism?

The divide between the American president and the American pontiff has exploded into view. Pope Leo has repeatedly rebuked President Donald Trump’s immigration policies and war in Iran, and Trump is now returning the criticism. Could the division prefigure a split in the Catholic Church?

Leo on Sunday delivered his “strongest condemnation yet” of war in a peace vigil at St. Peter’s Basilica, said CBS News. “Enough with war!” he said during the public service. Real strength “is manifested in serving life.” The president did not take kindly to the critique. Leo is “terrible for Foreign Policy” and should “get his act together as Pope, use Common Sense, stop catering to the Radical Left,” Trump said on Truth Social.

The exchange followed a “bitter lecture” during a January meeting between Pentagon appointees and a Vatican diplomat, said The Free Press. The message from Defense Department officials: the church “had better take its side” on the world stage. One unnamed U.S. official “went so far as to invoke the Avignon Papacy,” the 14th century period in which the French monarchy forcibly moved the papacy from Rome to France. Both sides downplayed the Free Press report. Even so, tension between Catholic leaders and the White House has “only risen since the start of the war with Iran,” said The Atlantic.

What did the commentators say?

“There will be no second Avignon,” Christopher Hale said at Letters From Leo. Officials invoking that 14th century history were making a “threat against the conscience of the world,” but the White House will be unable to repeat it. A recent favorability survey published by NBC News found Pope Leo finished first in a ranking of “fourteen public figures, institutions and political groups,” and by a wide margin. That makes Leo the “most popular public figure on earth.” Trump cannot compete. “The American people stand with Pope Leo XIV.”

Leo has “resisted Trump like a protester at a ‘No Kings’ rally,” Gustavo Arellano said at the Los Angeles Times. Critics will accuse the pope of “Trump Derangement Syndrome” and note that he stands “athwart the desires” of the 55% of Catholics who voted for the president in 2024. But Trump’s administration has pulled funding from Catholic charities and criticized bishops who dissent. Leo’s role is to “bear witness to the words of Christ,” who spoke more about caring for the poor than waging war. Unlike Trump, Leo “urges us to stand for something other than ourselves.”

What next?

The debate over the war is spilling into the wider religious sphere, “driving a wedge” between the president’s pro-Israel evangelical supporters and the Catholic commentators who are “increasingly hostile to Trump’s foreign policy agenda,” said Vox. The “Avignon-gate” report will continue to raise tensions “within the U.S. Catholic community, and within the MAGA movement.”

Pope Leo, meanwhile, will not return to the United States for the country’s 250th birthday celebrations in July, choosing instead to minister to migrants in Italy. Leo’s priority is “to be with those who are downcast and marginalized,” Cardinal Blase Cupich said to 60 Minutes.