Posted: Tuesday, September 30, 2025. 8:46 am CST.
The views expressed in this article are those of the writer and not necessarily those of Breaking Belize News.
By Philip Castillo: For the first time in its history and due to its internal divisions, the Opposition UDP did not field a candidate in the 2025 General Elections in Dangriga. Those internal divisions subsided sufficiently enough for the various factions to agree to hold conventions for caretaker representatives in select constituencies. Dangriga was among the constituencies selected for such a convention. Four persons submitted their names.
In your opinion, who do you think is best suited to be the UDP Constituency Caretaker in Dangriga?
Candidate %
Aaron Anderson 5
Earth Lopez 36
Simeon Lorenzo 7
Richard Webster 28
None of the Above 24
Total 100
Source: Castillo Poll # 1 of 2025
Obviously, the main takeaway from the poll is that the single largest majority (36%) thinks that Ms. Lopez is best suited to be the Constituency Caretaker in Dangriga. This does not mean that she will WIN the constituency caretaker convention scheduled for October 5. The reasons why, have to do with general issues regarding polling and specific issues regarding this poll.
A poll is a sample randomly drawn from a given population, the aim being to use that sample to make generalizations about the broader population. For this particular poll, the target population hasn’t yet been finalized and as such, any sample drawn from a population that is yet to be determined, is flawed. For a General Election, the target population is the official voters list, easily obtainable from the Elections Office. But for a constituency convention, the respective party pores over that General Elections voters list and removes the names of voters deemed to be supporters or members of the other party.
According to the most recent data on the website of the Elections and Boundaries Dept, the Dangriga constituency voters list was recorded at 6,266 in May 2025. Since July 1 and until the end of this month in August, transfers are possible whereby voters, who meet specified criteria can transfer to or from Dangriga. Am not certain when the UDP will decide the cut off date for voters for their Convention.
But when they do, what they will also do is haggle over the voters list and remove known PUPs. Indeed, some PUPs wear their politics on their sleeves and they are easy to identify. Others may not be so easily identifiable. This will obviously be a very subjective process and then who remains on the list would be target population. It ought to be from that target – however subjectively compiled – that the sample for the poll ought to have been drawn from.
During pilot testing and actual fieldwork, there were challenges. Notice the main question did not ask who do you think will win or who you intend to vote for. I merely asked who do you think is the best person to be the Constituency Caretaker.
Many persons have not heard of the upcoming constituency convention, and others who have heard have no intention of participating. Some candidates were not known and they had to be identified by their familial connections.
In addition to predictions which they are supposed to do, polls are also a useful tool for planning and strategizing. They can provide actionable information.
As a tool for planning, the candidates would want know who is voting for them …and why? And who is not voting for them. And why not? They would also want to know what issues animate their voters. This poll asked demographic questions such as age and gender. Even based on those two variables, a basic model can easily be constructed for the candidates to ascertain who is their typical supporter. BUT the more demographic questions that are asked such as level of education, family size, area of residence, employment status and income classification etc., the greater the number of independent variables to enhance the reliability of the model.
Note that marginally less than one in every four respondents (24%) opted for none of the above. This might be worrisome, as well as, it might not be. For those opting for “None of the Above,” a clear implication is that there is someone known or affiliated with the party in Dangriga who didn’t throw his/her hat in the ring. Should that person enter the race, one might be tempted to believe that there is a possibility that he/she could obtain up to 24% of the votes on Convention Day. Not necessarily so, since at least two names were provided who constitute that 24%.
But this may not even be an issue. On Convention Day, the choices will be among those whose names appear on the ballot. “None of the Above” will NOT be a choice. What would be of interest though, is to ascertain who those voters would vote for if they had to choose among the four candidates. This would be possible via what in the USA is regarded as ranked choice.
So, what are the requirements for a good constituency caretaker? The caretaker is NOT the Standard Bearer. At least not yet. Focus on the state of the UDP in Dangriga. Since Independence, the town has changed parties at every General Elections until Mr. Frank Papa Mena, who won a by election before winning an actual General Election. It is the PUP incumbent Dr Louis Zabaneh who was the first to win two consecutive General Elections in the town. And since then, the UDP has endured a series of defeat at all levels – national, municipal and village council level. At the national General Elections level, PUP won in 2020 and 2025 – where as noted initially, the UDP had no candidate. At the municipal level, the PUP won in 2021 and 2024. In the 2024 municipals, the highest voters on the UDP slate were previously Independent candidates. And at the village council level in 2025, the PUP won handily in Hope Creek and there wasn’t even a contested election in Sarawee.
A constituency caretaker is the face of the party in the town. He/She ought to have a plan to reverse these fortunes, to bring the warring factions together in some form of détente , to motivate people and to raise money….lots of it.
Other tidbits from the Poll
For General Elections purposes, the Dangriga Constituency includes Dangriga, where about 85% of the voters are, Hope Creek which has about 12% and Sarawee has the remaining 3%. Dangriga’s 85% include a few who live on the cayes offshore the town. Having served as Deputy Mayor and a teacher, perhaps explains why Ms. Lopez is known in the town and in the villages. She is the only candidate who has won in any election. Mr. Webster is known in the town and in Sarawee, but less so in Hope Creek. This is likely due to the fact that he was a candidate in the UDP Standard Bearer convention for the 2025 General Elections. Being a candidate gave him a level of political exposure that is lacking in the other two candidates. Neither Messrs. Lorenzo nor Anderson are known in the villages. And they are only known in select areas of the town.
Ms. Earth has notable support among female voters. “Woman quarrel less than man – at least inna politics” noted one poll respondent.
Issues that animate voters or what they deem as determinants of their voting intentions appear to be issues that bring individualized benefits – a plot of land, assistance with obtaining security of tenure to the land they live on, a scholarship, assistance with food and medical costs. Broader national issues, such as the 13th Amendment, campaign finance reforms and redistricting are distant concerns.
Finally, the caveat needs to be restated… the poll was drawn from the General Election’s voters list. The actual constituency convention list might be substantially different. But it will be from that convention list that the next constituency caretaker for the culture capital will be elected.
Advertise with the mоѕt vіѕіtеd nеwѕ ѕіtе іn Belize ~ We offer fully customizable and flexible digital marketing packages. Your content is delivered instantly to thousands of users in Belize and abroad! Contact us at mаrkеtіng@brеаkіngbеlіzеnеwѕ.соm or call us at 501-612-0315.
© 2025, BreakingBelizeNews.com. Content is copyrighted and requires written permission for reprinting in online or print media. Theft of content without permission/payment is punishable by law.
Comments
The post Constituency Caretaker Convention in the Culture Capital appeared first on Belize News and Opinion on www.breakingbelizenews.com.
Posted: Tuesday, September 30, 2025. 8:46 am CST. The views expressed in this article are those of the writer and not necessarily those of Breaking Belize
The post Constituency Caretaker Convention in the Culture Capital appeared first on Belize News and Opinion on www.breakingbelizenews.com.
