Biggest No. 1 draft pick flops in MLB history

Drafting baseball players is more of an art than a science, and every year players are selected in the first round of Major League Baseball’s amateur player draft who never reach the majors. The top overall pick, however, is more of a sure thing, and most of the players selected first since the draft was instituted in 1965 have played at least one game in the majors. The Washington Nationals probably hope that their top choice this year in the spot, 17-year-old infielder Eli Willits, doesn’t end up on this list of the five biggest busts, organized by career Wins Above Replacement (WAR).

1. Brady Aiken, Houston Astros (0 WAR)

Aiken earned his spot on this list by being a first-round draft pick twice. The first was in 2014 by the Houston Astros. After his selection, a routine “MRI of Aiken’s elbow revealed an abnormality, reportedly a ‘small’ ulnar collateral ligament,” said Sports Illustrated. The Astros then controversially backed out of an agreement with Aiken and sought a lower signing bonus. Ultimately, Aiken chose not to take the Astros’ offer and was selected 17th by the Cleveland Indians in 2015 after he had “Tommy John surgery” that winter. Aiken’s elite velocity, unfortunately, didn’t return after the surgery, and he never pitched above Class A ball.

2. Steve Chilcott, New York Mets (0 WAR)

In 1966, the second year of the sport’s amateur player draft, the New York Mets used the first pick in the draft on Chilcott, a “hard-hitting catcher” the team drafted out of Antelope Valley High School in Lancaster, California, said The New York Times. Infamously, the Kansas City Athletics took future Hall of Fame outfielder Reggie Jackson with the second pick. Chilcott was “actually hitting well in the Florida State League in 1967” when he suffered a shoulder injury that completely derailed his career, said ESPN. He briefly reached Triple-A but remains one of just three number one picks (excluding 2024 top draftee Travis Bazzana) who never reached the major leagues.

3. Brien Taylor, New York Yankees (0 WAR)

Taylor, a hard-throwing high school right-hander who drew comparisons to the New York Mets’ Dwight Gooden, was a key figure in dramatically increasing signing bonuses for baseball’s amateur draft picks. Represented by young superagent Scott Boras, Taylor held out for a then-record $1.55 million bonus after the Yankees selected him in the 1991 draft. Taylor was blowing through the minor leagues when he got into a fistfight to protect his brother Brenden and “fell or was thrown onto his left shoulder while wrestling” a man on December 18, 1993, said the Society for American Baseball Research. The shoulder injury eventually required surgery, and Taylor never regained the form that made him a phenom.

4. Danny Goodwin, California Angels (-1.7 WAR)

The only player in history to be taken with the first overall selection twice, Goodwin, a catcher, was selected out of high school by the Chicago White Sox in 1971. They offered him a “lower-than-anticipated figure” as a signing bonus, and “combined with Goodwin’s desire to earn a college degree,” this led him to turn down the offer and accept a scholarship from Southern University instead, said Major League Baseball. The California Angels took him first in the 1975 draft, and he signed for $125,000. Goodwin spent parts of seven seasons in the majors with three different teams, but his career never took off the way the teams that drafted him had hoped.

5. Henry Davis, Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.4 WAR)

In fairness, the jury is still out on Davis, a catcher who is currently playing for the Pirates, albeit not very well. In 2021, the Pirates “took him knowing he probably wasn’t the best player in the draft” because paying him a smaller bonus “allowed the Pirates to overpay for highly touted high schoolers with their next three picks,” said Fangraphs. One of them, pitcher Bubba Chandler, is the team’s best prospect today — but Davis continues to struggle. He was hitting just .198 with four home runs through the 2025 All Star break.