Posted: Friday, June 27, 2025. 11:32 am CST.
By Giselle O’Brien: Professor Emeritus of Economics, Victor Bulmer-Thomas, of London University, presented his findings on The Belizean Economy in the 21st Century: When and Why Belize Fell Behind, and What to Do About It. The findings have since sparked debate, notably within the political circles of Belize; and, in what some may call ‘True Belizean Crab Behavior’, political figures have already started to point fingers.
Perhaps this is what Professor Bulmer-Thomas was trying to avoid when he clearly stated that the question of ‘who was responsible’ was neither necessary nor part of his research, but rather, when, why and ultimately what to do now that die had been cast.
According to Bulmer-Thomas’ research, based on data generated in Belize – there has been a stagnation in the GDP per capita when measured at constant prices in Belize over the last two decades. This stagnation is further compounded by the fact that most countries within the Caribbean and Central American regions have been experiencing relatively steady growth in the last 2 to 3 decades, resulting in a deterioration of Belize’s standing within both regions. The data demonstrates that the Caribbean region generally experienced higher GDP growth than Central America, and when questioned Dr. Bulmer-Thomas credited tourism and accompanying tertiary services for this higher growth level in the Caribbean.
When did Belize start experiencing a downfall? According to Bulmer-Thomas’ research, Belize hit peak growth sometime around 2007 before continuing on a steady decline from 2008 until 2011/2012. Since then, very minimal growth occurred with our overall GDP decreasing steadily right up until 2020. Notably, after 2020, there is demonstration of a ‘dramatic recovery’ post covid, which would be found worldwide due to reopening of services post lockdown. There is yet again another decline in 2023, followed by what appears to be another bout of dramatic growth during 2024, interestingly he said, coinciding with an upcoming election. However, the polarizing statements that seems to have Belize’s current Prime Minister John Briceno on edge, stem from Professor Bulmer-Thomas’ observation:
“If you look at the last four years (2021 – 2025) where the line is going up, it’s very tempting, and I know people will want to say this, is that, well, the problem is solved, because we’ve now put Belize on a new growth path, a new sustainable growth path…”
Bulmer-Thomas goes on to say:
“I think that would be very misleading because what you’re looking at here is a recovery, and if we look at the prognosis for this year and the next few years, you will see that on any kind of objective measure, the outlook for Belize, in terms of GDP per head, is not that brilliant.”
Why Belize’s GDP has remained stagnant in constant prices can be attributed to several issues, starting with the fact that despite having a rich supply of natural resources, Belize is a major under-exporter. The rate of growth in the export of goods and overall economic growth have not surpassed the country’s population growth, leading to a stagnation in the standard of living.
Secondly, Gross Fixed Capital Formation (the net increase of newly fixed assets) in Belize has fallen steadily over the last two decades and remains very low (less that 20%), whereas GFCF in developing countries tends to be higher than 20%. Investment in the private sector contributes 11.2% of the GDP and is too low for any real economic growth, while foreign investment, though respectable, has been too volatile.
Bulmer-Thomas’ research also shows that high fixed costs for public services versus population suggests that Belize’s population may simply be too small to support quality service. The under-collection of income and business tax may also play a role, he argues.
While the data may be grim, there is still hope. Professor Bulmer-Thomas included several options for statistically analyzing economic options in the primary, secondary and tertiary sectors, which, if analyzed properly and collectively, could set Belize on a path of renewed and sustainable growth. The question that remains, however, is whether the provided research and evidence-based solutions will be analyzed and implemented by the powers that be, or will the nation collectively continue to turn a blind eye to the increasing issues that are affecting our daily consumer lives?
More information on the findings of Professor Bulmer-Thomas’ research can be accessed at BELPRI’s Website: https://www.ub.edu.bz/belize-policy-research-institute/
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The post Belize’s economy stagnant for the last 20 years, Professor Victor Bulmer-Thomas finds appeared first on Belize News and Opinion on www.breakingbelizenews.com.
Posted: Friday, June 27, 2025. 11:32 am CST. By Giselle O’Brien: Professor Emeritus of Economics, Victor Bulmer-Thomas, of London University, presented his findings on The Belizean
The post Belize’s economy stagnant for the last 20 years, Professor Victor Bulmer-Thomas finds appeared first on Belize News and Opinion on www.breakingbelizenews.com.