Belize braces for varied climate conditions: CariCOF predicts drier dry season and potential heatwaves

By Horace Palacio: The Barbados-based Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum (CariCOF) has released its latest Caribbean Climate Outlooks bulletin, forecasting a period of more comfortable temperatures and humidity across the region over the next three months. According to CariCOF, this time also signals the build-up towards the peak of the dry season in the Caribbean, which is anticipated to be drier than usual for most areas.

Specifically, Belize, along with the Guianas and Puerto Rico, is expected to see an increase in both short- and long-term drought concerns. The frequency of short dry spells and the potential for wildfires are projected to rise towards March. However, CariCOF notes that there is still a moderate to high chance of intense showers in central and southern parts of Belize, the Guianas, and in mountainous areas of the Caribbean islands, which could lead to flooding and flash floods through January.

Interestingly, Belize is set to experience mostly heavy rainfall during what is typically the dry season. Rainfall totals from January to March are likely to be normal or less across the Caribbean Islands and the Guianas. As of December 1 last year, moderate or worse short-term drought conditions have developed in several areas including Barbados, southeasternmost Cuba, Grenada, parts of the Guianas, Martinique, southern Puerto Rico, and Trinidad and Tobago. Long-term drought has been observed in regions like southern Barbados, parts of northern Belize, eastern Cuba, and southeast French Guiana.

By the end of March this year, short-term drought is evolving in southwest Belize, Grand Cayman, interior French Guiana, southwest Puerto Rico, and northeast Suriname. There is also a possibility of drought development or continuation in several other areas.

Looking ahead to the period from April to June, CariCOF predicts temperatures to be higher than usual in most areas. Despite the usual absence of significant episodes of heat stress during the Caribbean Cool Season, the persistently higher temperatures this year could lead to heatwaves, notably in March, due to very low soil moisture content.

This period marks not only the transition from the dry to the wet season but also into the Heat Season in the Caribbean. The tropical North Atlantic Ocean is forecast to remain unseasonably warm, while the strong El Niño is expected to fade. Unusually high air temperatures are likely to prevail through June 2024, increasing the risk of significant heat stress.

CariCOF warns that the risk of severe weather impacts, including flooding, flash floods, and cascading hazards, may sharply rise in April or May, as the possibility of an intense early wet season is higher than in most years. The conditions expected this year draw parallels to 2010, which saw regional drought followed by extreme heat, rainfall, and floods.

 

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