The embattled ANC is expected to face stiff competition in its bid to regain an absolute majority in several councils in the upcoming local government elections
However, experts say the polls will be shaped less by national trends and more by regional dynamics, including candidate popularity, community dissatisfaction and bread-and-butter issues.
This comes against the backdrop of the ANC’s decline to just over 40% in the 2024 national elections.
Analysts told the Mail & Guardian that while the national results offered useful insight into voter sentiment, they were not definitive predictors of local election outcomes.
They said protest voting would probably be more pronounced at local level, driven by persistent service delivery failures such as collapsing infrastructure, water shortages, high electricity tariffs, sanitation backlogs, poorly maintained roads, high unemployment, crime and transport challenges.
Local government expert Dr Harlan Cloete said local elections differed significantly from national polls in their voting patterns, adding that the ANC would probably shed further support “specifically now that the SACP [South African Communist Party] has decided to go out on its own”.
“The EFF [Economic Freedom Fighters] will want to do a strong showing. The [uMkhonto weSizwe] MK Party will want to show that its huge win in the past national elections was not a fluke.
“You are seeing a rise of smaller issue-based community parties, which do not want to be controlled by Luthuli House [in Johannesburg] or from Wale Street [in Cape Town].”
The Democratic Alliance (DA), he said, would in all probability try to convince voters to vote for it.
“It is going to be a really difficult election because parties like the DA are part of the government of national unity (GNU).
“How does it define itself outside the GNU in the local election?” Cloete asked.
He likened the upcoming polls to US midterm elections, noting that South Africa was heading towards national elections in 2029.
Cloete said the growing number of political parties signalled increasing fragmentation, which was expected to result in more coalition governments.
“In the Western Cape the big test will be on whether the PA [Patriotic Alliance] will manage to continue the pattern of eating away at the DA’s base. The DA has again lost a by-election to the PA and the PA appeals to working-class voters,” said Cloete.
He said voter confidence in metropolitan governance had declined sharply in cities such as Johannesburg, Tshwane, Ekurhuleni and Nelson Mandela Bay.
“All four municipalities are governed by coalitions that have proved to be very unstable and fragile. At the core of local government elections is service delivery — working with communities, which is what developmental local government is all about.”
The answer, he said, lay in working with locals to find sustainable long-term solutions.
“We have seen ward committees almost collapse. I don’t think participatory democracy works as it should; people are tired of voting and not seeing results. What will make the polls interesting is that it is our first post-GNU election.”
Dr Thina Nzo of the Public Affairs Research Institute said the ANC was struggling to launch a coherent campaign because of internal factional battles and reputational damage linked to corruption allegations.
“We can use the polls to predict the likelihood of voter outcome but lived reality through people’s voices, perceptions and encounters with local government failures matters most. This is corroborated by pathological auditor-general reports and cases pointing to misappropriation of public funds.”
It was too late for the ANC, Nzo said. “ANC governance failures and incompetent and unethical leadership have ruined its renewal project.”
She said that had worsened the polarisation of society and needed national presidential leadership to hone society towards one common goal, built through asserting state authority, cohesion and cooperation among interest groups and civic movements.
“The number one priority is a strong stance against corruption and zero tolerance for incompetence and lack of ethics,” Nzo said.
Constitutional and local government expert Dr Phindile Ntliziywana said municipalities continued to face deep structural challenges, including limited capacity, corruption, mismanagement, weak by-law enforcement and poor revenue collection.
“Many municipalities struggle with financial constraints, skills shortages, political interference and elite capture. To turn things around, a concerted effort is needed to strengthen governance, improve transparency and build capacity.
“This involves stricter oversight by provincial government, enforcing professionalism, fostering community participation and ensuring accountability from local leaders.
“Long-term investments in infrastructure, hiring qualified personnel and implementing anti-corruption measures, are essential for achieving sustainable improvements in
service delivery.”
These solutions, Ntliziywana argued, are missing in the political will to override local patronage interests.
He said established parties that had strong grassroots networks would probably perform better than smaller or emerging parties and independents that could face challenges in mounting impactful campaigns.
“This is not because of the timeframe but due to limited resources. Effective campaigning requires not just time but adequate resources, organisation and clear messaging to reach voters successfully.”
On the ANC’s renewal strategy, Ntliziywana said its success would depend on whether it could overcome factionalism and patronage networks.
“The success of the ANC’s renewal strategy in selecting local leaders depends on its ability to genuinely address internal factionalism, promote transparency and prioritise community interests over factional loyalties.
“If the strategy focuses on merit, integrity and local development, it has potential. However, entrenched regional-branch-level patronage networks and resistance to change in some branches may hinder meaningful renewal.”
The strategy’s effectiveness, he said, would ultimately be judged by whether it resulted in leaders who could rebuild trust and deliver tangible improvements at the local level. He said opposition fragmentation continued to shape electoral outcomes.
Ntliziywana added that the fragmentation of opposition parties often resulted in a diluted black vote share “making it easier for white parties, like the DA to retain control in many municipalities”.
“This fragmentation can weaken black opposition’s ability to present a united front, reducing their bargaining power and diminishing their capacity to hold governing parties
to account,” he said.
“Conversely, it may create opportunities for smaller or new parties to gain ground in specific localities.
“Overall, however, this fragmentation tends to entrench the status quo in several municipalities governed by white parties that seldom fragment.”
Political experts say fragmented opposition politics and worsening municipal governance will define South Africa’s first post-GNU local elections and that it’s not looking good for the ANC
