Better livestock and fire management across Africa’s savannas, grasslands and shrublands could unlock one of the continent’s most significant climate opportunities — one that sits inside the daily realities of how people move livestock, use fire and depend on land for survival.
The landscapes cover nearly 70% of sub-Saharan Africa and are often mischaracterised in global climate debates as degraded or marginal.
The roadmap underlying the analysis argues the opposite: they are working ecosystems, shaped over centuries by grazing, fire and rainfall and central to both biodiversity and rural economies.
If managed differently, they could also become a major climate sink. Africa’s Nature Transition: A Roadmap for People, Nature and Climate estimates that improved rangeland management, particularly through rotational grazing and prescribed burning, could store up to 11 gigatons of carbon dioxide equivalent by 2050.
That is roughly a fifth of current annual global emissions, achieved not through new technologies but through changes in how landscapes are used and restored.
The scale of the potential sits within a broader shift in thinking running through the report, which was produced by Conservation International and the Future Ecosystems for Africa (Fefa) programme at Wits University.
Africa contributes only about 4% of global emissions, yet experiences some of the most severe climate impacts, from recurring droughts and floods to accelerating land degradation.
Against that imbalance, the roadmap estimates that a coordinated set of ecosystem-based interventions across sub-Saharan Africa could deliver up to 1.6 gigatons of carbon mitigation annually between 2026 and 2050, while strengthening food systems, biodiversity and water security.
“For too long, global climate policy and finance have treated Africa as an afterthought. This roadmap seeks to change that,” says Conservation International’s chief field officer in Africa, Jimmiel Mandima.
“It’s an African-led initiative that says economic growth doesn’t have to come at a high carbon cost. We can drive climate action while also advancing economic growth aspirations and lifting people out of poverty.”
The report is equally explicit that the outcomes depend on how people are included in the process. As the foreword by researchers at Wits’ Fefa programme stresses, climate solutions in Africa cannot be separated from the realities of how people live with and manage nature.
“Many people in Africa today live within and alongside nature,” write professor Laura Pereira, the co-principal investigator of the Fefa programme and professor Sally Archibald, who leads the Fefa programme.
“The rest of the world can learn from their experiences when implementing natural climate solutions that have the potential to provide huge benefits to the continent if applied appropriately.”
Rangelands as a climate solution
Their foreword emphasises that the roadmap is not only about identifying technical potential but also about grounding climate action in African ecological realities and knowledge systems. It argues that effective solutions must reflect how landscapes are used and must avoid one-size-fits-all interventions that ignore ecosystem differences.
Nowhere is the tension more visible than in rangelands. The report identifies sustainable livestock and fire management as the single largest mitigation opportunity among its eight priority action areas. It challenges the idea that grazing pressure is inherently destructive, instead showing how outcomes depend on timing, movement and recovery.
When livestock are moved through landscapes in planned rotations, vegetation is allowed to recover, soil carbon increases and grassland diversity improves. Fire, when used as a managed ecological tool rather than suppressed entirely, can maintain ecosystem balance and reduce the risk of destructive wildfires in fire-adapted systems.
The approaches are being tested at scale. Conservation International’s Herding for Health programme works with pastoral communities to introduce planned grazing systems, remove invasive vegetation and improve livestock health and market access.
The programme spans a million hectares across seven African countries, illustrating how ecological recovery and livelihoods can reinforce one another.
The roadmap extends the systems thinking across other ecosystems. Restoration of forests, wetlands and freshwater systems is estimated to have the potential to capture up to eight gigatons of carbon dioxide equivalent by 2050, alongside benefits for water security and disaster risk reduction.
However, the report is explicit that restoration must be ecologically appropriate. In savannas and woodlands, for example, large-scale tree planting can distort ecosystems that are not naturally forested. Instead, it prioritises assisted natural regeneration and landscape-level hydrological restoration.
Pressure points
Food systems are identified as one of the most urgent and complex pressure points in the transition. The report says that up to a quarter of people in sub-Saharan Africa experienced acute food insecurity in 2024. This will intensify as population growth pushes demand for food, land and water toward 2.1 billion people by 2050.
Agriculture is both a major source of emissions and highly vulnerable to climate shocks, meaning the region must increase food production while reducing environmental pressure.
Climate-smart and regenerative agriculture can reset the continent’s food systems. Scaling the practices across just half of Africa’s smallholder farms could prevent up to 6.5 gigatons of carbon dioxide equivalent by 2050, while improving yields and creating millions of agricultural jobs.
The emphasis is on farming systems that build soil health, diversify production and strengthen resilience to climate variability rather than relying on input-intensive expansion.
The roadmap report also highlights reducing food loss along the supply chain as a key mitigation opportunity, with the potential to cut emissions by about 0.1 gigatons of CO₂ equivalent by 2030 and 0.6 gigatons by 2050, by improving efficiency without reducing production.
A further priority area is the protection of climate-critical landscapes, areas where intact ecosystems provide disproportionate benefits for carbon storage, biodiversity and water regulation.
Strengthening protected areas, ecological corridors and landscape connectivity could avoid up to four gigatons of emissions by 2050, while maintaining the ecological processes that underpin both wildlife and human systems.
Interconnected systems
Africa’s landscapes, the report says, cannot be treated as separate sectors. Grasslands, forests, farms and freshwater systems are interconnected, shaped by both ecological dynamics and human use. The challenge is not to isolate them but to manage them as integrated systems.
That perspective is echoed strongly in the Wits foreword, which frames the roadmap as an effort to align science, policy and lived experience.
The scientists describe it as a tool to “mobilise enthusiasm and funding from the international community to drive positive change in Africa through climate mitigation efforts”, while strengthening African voices in global decision-making.
Climate change itself is framed not as a distant threat but as a present constraint on development. Across sub-Saharan Africa, climate-related shocks cause economic losses estimated at 2% to 5% of GDP annually in some countries, with some governments diverting up to 9% of national budgets towards response and recovery.
In this context, ecosystem restoration is not only about mitigation but about reducing vulnerability. Freshwater systems are a key part of the equation.
Rivers, wetlands and floodplains regulate water supply, buffer extreme weather and support agriculture and fisheries. The report describes them as “high value freshwater ecosystems” that are central to water security and, by extension, to sovereignty.
Ultimately, the report argues that advancing natural climate solutions in Africa is not only a regional priority but a global necessity that must be done in a way that puts equity first.
Climate change is accelerating and the window for action through adapting to its impacts is closing, notes Perushan Rajah, who leads Conservation International’s nature-based solutions in Africa and co-authored the report.
“This report shows that Africa is central to the global solution. Investing in nature now can help chart a unique path forward that allows people and nature to co-exist in harmony.”
A new Africa nature transition roadmap shows improved grazing, fire management and farming could unlock major carbon reductions while strengthening food security and livelihoods
