Trump adviser Peter Navarro says ‘we have to revise our expectations down’ because of US deportation programme
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.
It’s non-farm payrolls day! The eagerly-awaited US jobs report is out today, and the White House has been trying to moderate expectations.
We have to revise our expectations down significantly for what a monthly job number should look like. When we were letting in 2 million illegal aliens a day we had to produce 200,000 [jobs] a month for steady stay.
Now 50,000 a month is going to be more like what we need. Wall Street, when this stuff comes out, they can’t rain on our parade, they just have to adjust for the fact that we’re deporting millions of illegals.
The FTSE 100 is set to open up, after a lacklustre close on Tuesday. On quiet days for earnings reports and economic data points, the index tends to act as a barometer for commodity prices. Gold prices have strengthened slightly and are at close to two-year highs, supported by strengthening sentiment around US rate cuts this year. Copper and oil are also providing a light tailwind today.
US stock futures are erring on the side of optimism ahead of jobs data expected later on. Hopes for a rate cut by the Fed next month have improved slightly after American retail sales unexpectedly flatlined in December, with shares in Costco, Target and Walmart all ending down on Tuesday.
Our US economists see nonfarm payrolls coming in at +75k, with the unemployment rate staying at 4.4%. Remember as well that today’s report will include the annual benchmark revisions to payrolls, which could rewrite some of the trends over recent history.
We already got the preliminary number in September, which said that payrolls were -911k lower as of March 2025. However, that number can be different from the preliminary release, and last year’s preliminary benchmark revision was -818k but the final number was a smaller -589k, so not as negative as first thought.
1.30pm GMT: US non-farm payrolls for January (previous: 50,000; forecast: 70,000)
5.30pm GMT: Bank of England policymaker James Talbot gives speech
Continue reading…Trump adviser Peter Navarro says ‘we have to revise our expectations down’ because of US deportation programmeGood morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.It’s non-farm payrolls day! The eagerly-awaited US jobs report is out today, and the White House has been trying to moderate expectations.We have to revise our expectations down significantly for what a monthly job number should look like. When we were letting in 2 million illegal aliens a day we had to produce 200,000 [jobs] a month for steady stay.Now 50,000 a month is going to be more like what we need. Wall Street, when this stuff comes out, they can’t rain on our parade, they just have to adjust for the fact that we’re deporting millions of illegals.The FTSE 100 is set to open up, after a lacklustre close on Tuesday. On quiet days for earnings reports and economic data points, the index tends to act as a barometer for commodity prices. Gold prices have strengthened slightly and are at close to two-year highs, supported by strengthening sentiment around US rate cuts this year. Copper and oil are also providing a light tailwind today.US stock futures are erring on the side of optimism ahead of jobs data expected later on. Hopes for a rate cut by the Fed next month have improved slightly after American retail sales unexpectedly flatlined in December, with shares in Costco, Target and Walmart all ending down on Tuesday.Our US economists see nonfarm payrolls coming in at +75k, with the unemployment rate staying at 4.4%. Remember as well that today’s report will include the annual benchmark revisions to payrolls, which could rewrite some of the trends over recent history.We already got the preliminary number in September, which said that payrolls were -911k lower as of March 2025. However, that number can be different from the preliminary release, and last year’s preliminary benchmark revision was -818k but the final number was a smaller -589k, so not as negative as first thought.1.30pm GMT: US non-farm payrolls for January (previous: 50,000; forecast: 70,000)5.30pm GMT: Bank of England policymaker James Talbot gives speech Continue reading…
