The holiday season is notoriously tough on the wallet. And this year, the impact may be even more dramatic, thanks to price hikes resulting largely from the slate of tariffs enacted under President Donald Trump.
Even though the “impact so far this year has been muted, tariffs are expected to catch up with prices consumers pay just in time for the holiday shopping season,” said CNBC. There may also be fewer, and less generous, discounts to soften the steeper price tags.
What effects will tariffs have on holiday shopping?
If Trump’s current tariffs had been in place during the 2024 holiday shopping season, it is estimated that “consumers would have shouldered an estimated $28.6 billion” in added costs on gift purchases, said LendingTree, citing its analysis of data sources including the NRF and the U.S. Department of Commerce. Per shopper, this translates to $132 more spent, said the outlet.
As retailers are also dealing with tariffs, the sales that have come to define the holiday season may be less generous. “There will absolutely be items on sale this Black Friday that you may want to purchase, and there will be plenty of legitimately good deals,” but it is unlikely that this Black Friday will be a “bonanza of all-time great deals,” said Wirecutter.
Shoppers will additionally want to look out for the “small chance you’ll receive a tariff bill upon delivery,” said Wirecutter. Though not especially common — “many companies are opting to incorporate the additional tariff costs into their retail price” — it could force you to pay that much more if you want your package delivered.
How much will prices increase due to tariffs?
Tariffs will hit some categories harder than others. For instance, looking back at 2024 once again, “electronics would have the largest per-shopper burden at $186, followed by clothing or accessories at $82,” said LendingTree. “Conversely, food or candy would have the smallest per-shopper burden, at just $12,” followed by personal care or beauty and toys, “with both at $14.”
Also worth taking into consideration: “Most consumer tech gadgets are still exempt from tariffs due to carve-outs for products with chips in them,” said Caitlin McGarry, a Wirecutter editor overseeing tech coverage, to the outlet. However, this may not continue to be the case.
Are there any ways to save amid tariffs?
Just because tariffs are an uninvited guest to your holiday season, does not mean you cannot still have a jolly good time. Some ways to save in spite of tariffs include:
Planning ahead. A category that is likely to get hit hard by tariffs is holiday decoration, like lights and wreaths. “Stocking up before Black Friday, when inventory typically starts to tighten, could help you avoid tariff surcharges,” said AARP.
Shopping secondhand. Buying used or vintage items could help you skirt past tariffs, as “these items typically aren’t subject to tariffs when resold in the country in which they were initially bought,” said Matt Schulz, a chief consumer finance analyst at LendingTree, to the outlet.
Doing your homework. Not convinced the deal you are getting is actually a good one? Consider checking an item’s price history to serve as a guide. Taking the time to browse multiple retailers can also provide context.
Prices may not be so holly jolly this year
